Tee Higgins
WR
Cincinnati Bengals
This is how WRs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Dontayvion Wicks | 4 | 2 | 73 | 1 | 15.3 |
| 2 |  DAL | CeeDee Lamb | 9 | 8 | 153 | 2 | 35.3 |
| 3 |  SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 14 | 10 | 128 | 2 | 35.4 |
| 4 |  IND | Laquon Treadwell | 6 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 9.2 |
| 5 |  NYG | Malik Nabers | 20 | 11 | 121 | 1 | 29.1 |
| 6 |  SF | Mike Evans | 5 | 3 | 94 | 0 | 12.4 |
| 8 | PHI | Makai Lemon | 9 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 11.7 |
| Average | 9.6 | 6.4 | 95.4 | 0.9 | 21.2 | ||
| Median | 9.0 | 6.0 | 94.0 | 1.0 | 15.3 | ||
| High | 20 | 11 | 153 | 2 | 35.4 | ||
| Low | 4 | 2 | 42 | 0 | 9.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Tee Higgins should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Tee Higgins has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Tee Higgins will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Tee Higgins's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Tee Higgins usually produces.
Projected is Tee Higgins's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 6 | 3 | 59 | 0 | 8.9 |
| 2 | HOU | 10 | 5 | 95 | 0 | 14.5 |
| 3 | PIT | 7 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 21.0 |
| 4 | JAX | 16 | 11 | 157 | 0 | 26.7 |
| 5 | MIA | 4 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 4.2 |
| 7 | BAL | 7 | 6 | 148 | 1 | 26.8 |
| 8 | TEN | 11 | 10 | 155 | 2 | 37.5 |
| Higgins avg | 8.7 | 6.1 | 103.7 | 0.6 | 19.9 | |
| Commanders WR1 avg | 9.6 | 6.4 | 95.4 | 0.9 | 21.2 | |
| Difference | +0.9 | +0.3 | -8.3 | +0.3 | +1.3 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 120.9 | 0.7 | 24.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Higgins averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Tee HigginsGood confidence · 24.5 proj pts10/10 start
- Tee Higgins averages 19.9 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 23.0) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Commanders have allowed 21.2 points to WR1s over 7 games (+24% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +17% adjustment.
- Last season's average (14.1) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 24.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreTee Higgins vs the Commanders
Prediction for Tee Higgins
Nobody knows which slot Tee Higgins will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 24.5 points for Tee Higgins if playing as a WR1. Tee Higgins has averaged 19.9 over 7 games, and the Commanders have given up 21.2 to WR1s (+24% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Tee Higgins scored: Wk 1 8.9, Wk 2 14.5, Wk 3 21.0, Wk 4 26.7, Wk 5 4.2, Wk 7 26.8, Wk 8 37.5. Average 19.9; weighted toward recent games it is 21.0.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Commanders allowed 21.2 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is +24%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +17% adjustment (x1.17).
4. Result. 21.0 x 1.17 = 24.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Tee Higgins is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (24.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.6 points, leaning on Tee Higgins's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 25.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 6.4 receptions, 95.4 receiving yards and 0.9 receiving TDs against the Commanders across 7 games.
- The Commanders allow 21.2 PPR points to WR1s, +24% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (35.4 pts, 10 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 21.2 vs 18.8; rec 6.4 vs 5.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, CeeDee Lamb (35.3 pts, 153 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 21.2 vs 18.8; yds 95.4 vs 85.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 6 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 9.2 to 35.4 (median 15.3).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 7 games (57%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.