Joe Burrow
QB
Cincinnati Bengals▲ Hot
This is how QBs have played against the Jaguars in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CLE | Deshaun Watson | 16 | 22 | 205 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 14.0 |
| 2 |  DEN | Bo Nix | 22 | 31 | 288 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 14.1 |
| 3 |  NE | Drake Maye | 14 | 25 | 199 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 3.8 |
| Average | 17.3 | 26.0 | 230.7 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 5.0 | 20.7 | 0.0 | 10.6 | ||
| Median | 16.0 | 25.0 | 205.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | ||
| High | 22 | 31 | 288 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 14.1 | ||
| Low | 14 | 22 | 199 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 3.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Joe Burrow should do vs the JaguarsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jaguars, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Joe Burrow has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jaguars opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Joe Burrow will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jaguars avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Joe Burrow's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Joe Burrow usually produces.
Projected is Joe Burrow's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jaguars were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 25 | 35 | 254 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 2 | HOU | 20 | 31 | 207 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16.2 |
| 3 | PIT | 28 | 37 | 282 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 22.6 |
| 4 | JAX | 39 | 54 | 428 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 23.7 |
| 5 | MIA | 23 | 32 | 190 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 24.6 |
| 7 | BAL | 22 | 30 | 292 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 28.9 |
| 8 | TEN | 38 | 48 | 462 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 39.5 |
| Burrow avg | 27.9 | 38.1 | 302.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 10.0 | 0.3 | 24.2 | |
| Jaguars QB1 avg | 17.3 | 26.0 | 230.7 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 5.0 | 20.7 | 0.0 | 10.6 | |
| Difference | -10.5 | -12.1 | -71.5 | -2.2 | +0.5 | +2.1 | +10.7 | -0.3 | -13.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Burrow averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJoe Burrow vs the Jaguars
Prediction for Joe Burrow
Nobody knows which slot Joe Burrow will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jaguars.
I predict about 14.3 points for Joe Burrow if playing as a QB1. Joe Burrow has averaged 17.6 over 3 games, and the Jaguars have given up 10.6 to QB1s (-38% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Joe Burrow scored: Wk 1 14.2, Wk 2 16.2, Wk 3 22.6. Average 17.6; weighted toward recent games it is 17.7.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Jaguars allowed 10.6 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is -38%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -19% adjustment (x0.81).
4. Result. 17.7 x 0.81 = 14.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Joe Burrow is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.5 points, leaning on Joe Burrow's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 230.7 passing yards, 0.7 passing TDs and 20.7 rushing yards against the Jaguars across 3 games.
- The Jaguars allow 10.6 PPR points to QB1s, -38% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 30 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Drake Maye (3.8 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 10.6 vs 14.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 3 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.8 to 14.1 (median 14.0).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 150 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 3 games (67%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.