DeVonta Smith
WR
Philadelphia EaglesQ
- Quarterback Tanner McKee is questionable. Watch the status.
- Teammate Dontayvion Wicks (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Rams in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Rams in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | Deebo Samuel Sr. | 7 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 18.0 |
| 2 |  NYG | Darnell Mooney | 3 | 2 | 48 | 0 | 6.8 |
| 3 |  DEN | Pat Bryant | 2 | 2 | 44 | 1 | 14.4 |
| Average | 4.0 | 3.3 | 46.7 | 0.7 | 13.1 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 2.0 | 48.0 | 1.0 | 14.4 | ||
| High | 7 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 18.0 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 6.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How DeVonta Smith should do vs the RamsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Rams, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game DeVonta Smith has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Rams opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot DeVonta Smith will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Rams avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus DeVonta Smith's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than DeVonta Smith usually produces.
Projected is DeVonta Smith's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Rams were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 6 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 8.3 |
| 2 | TEN | 13 | 10 | 117 | 1 | 27.7 |
| 3 | CHI | 8 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 12.5 |
| 6 | CAR | 14 | 7 | 75 | 1 | 20.5 |
| Smith avg | 10.3 | 6.5 | 77.5 | 0.5 | 17.3 | |
| Rams WR1 avg | 4.0 | 3.3 | 46.7 | 0.7 | 13.1 | |
| Difference | -6.3 | -3.2 | -30.8 | +0.2 | -4.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Smith averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreDeVonta Smith vs the Rams
Prediction for DeVonta Smith
Nobody knows which slot DeVonta Smith will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Rams.
I predict about 12.8 points for DeVonta Smith if playing as a WR1. DeVonta Smith has averaged 16.2 over 3 games, and the Rams have given up 13.1 to WR1s (-24% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. DeVonta Smith scored: Wk 1 8.3, Wk 2 27.7, Wk 3 12.5. Average 16.2; weighted toward recent games it is 14.6.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Rams allowed 13.1 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is -24%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -12% adjustment (x0.88).
4. Result. 14.6 x 0.88 = 12.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely DeVonta Smith is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.0 points, leaning on DeVonta Smith's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 3.3 receptions, 46.7 receiving yards and 0.7 receiving TDs against the Rams across 3 games.
- The Rams allow 13.1 PPR points to WR1s, -24% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 26 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Deebo Samuel Sr. (18.0 pts, 6 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.1 vs 10.6; rec 3.3 vs 2.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 3 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.8 to 18.0 (median 14.4).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 3 games (67%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.