Drake London
WR
Atlanta Falcons
This is how WRs have played against the Bengals in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Bengals in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TB | Emeka Egbuka | 6 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 11.3 |
| 2 |  HOU | Xavier Hutchinson | 9 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 6.7 |
| 3 |  PIT | Roman Wilson | 6 | 3 | 60 | 1 | 15.0 |
| 4 |  JAX | Brian Thomas Jr. | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 9.7 |
| 5 |  MIA | Malik Washington | 8 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 12.1 |
| 7 |  BAL | Zay Flowers | 11 | 8 | 137 | 1 | 27.7 |
| 8 |  TEN | Chimere Dike | 6 | 5 | 71 | 1 | 18.1 |
| Average | 6.9 | 4.6 | 61.1 | 0.6 | 14.4 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 5.0 | 60.0 | 1.0 | 12.1 | ||
| High | 11 | 8 | 137 | 1 | 27.7 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Drake London should do vs the BengalsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bengals, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Drake London has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bengals opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Drake London will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bengals avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Drake London's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Drake London usually produces.
Projected is Drake London's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bengals were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 4 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 2 | CAR | 5 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 8.9 |
| 3 | GB | 10 | 9 | 194 | 0 | 28.4 |
| 4 | NO | 6 | 5 | 96 | 0 | 14.6 |
| 5 | BAL | 11 | 7 | 118 | 0 | 18.8 |
| 6 | CHI | 10 | 4 | 62 | 0 | 12.2 |
| 7 | SF | 10 | 7 | 66 | 1 | 19.6 |
| 8 | TB | 6 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 |
| London avg | 7.8 | 4.9 | 78.0 | 0.1 | 13.7 | |
| Bengals WR1 avg | 6.9 | 4.6 | 61.1 | 0.6 | 14.4 | |
| Difference | -0.9 | -0.3 | -16.9 | +0.4 | +0.6 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 69.2 | 0.1 | 12.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what London averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Drake LondonGood confidence · 13.7 proj pts7/10 start
- Drake London averages 13.7 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 12.9) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Bengals have allowed 14.4 points to WR1s over 7 games (-16% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -11% adjustment.
- Last season's average (16.8) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +9%: Vegas total 52.5, implied 24.8 points for ATL (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 3: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- QB change: Michael Penix Jr. is now throwing (7.5 yds/att vs 7.3 earlier), x1.02.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Jordan Battle (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Cedric Johnson (DL) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 13.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreDrake London vs the Bengals
Prediction for Drake London
Nobody knows which slot Drake London will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bengals.
I predict about 12.1 points for Drake London if playing as a WR1. Drake London has averaged 13.7 over 8 games, and the Bengals have given up 14.4 to WR1s (-16% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Drake London scored: Wk 1 5.5, Wk 2 8.9, Wk 3 28.4, Wk 4 14.6, Wk 5 18.8, Wk 6 12.2, Wk 7 19.6, Wk 8 1.8. Average 13.7; weighted toward recent games it is 13.7.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Bengals allowed 14.4 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is -16%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -11% adjustment (x0.89).
4. Result. 13.7 x 0.89 = 12.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Drake London is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.6 points, leaning on Drake London's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 4.6 receptions, 61.1 receiving yards and 0.6 receiving TDs against the Bengals across 7 games.
- The Bengals allow 14.4 PPR points to WR1s, -16% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 24 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 7, Zay Flowers (27.7 pts, 8 rec, 137 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 14.4 vs 12.2; rec 4.6 vs 4.0; yds 61.1 vs 48.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Brian Thomas Jr. (2 rec, 17 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: rec 4.6 vs 5.0; yds 61.1 vs 68.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.7 to 27.7 (median 12.1).
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 7 games (57%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.