Jameson Williams
WR
Detroit Lions▲ Hot
- Teammate Amon-Ra St. Brown (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Patriots in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Patriots in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Cooper Kupp | 3 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 2 |  PIT | Germie Bernard | 8 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 3 |  JAX | Parker Washington | 5 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 13.0 |
| 4 |  BUF | Khalil Shakir | 8 | 7 | 82 | 0 | 13.2 |
| 5 |  LV | Cody White | 4 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 6.4 |
| 6 |  NYJ | Garrett Wilson | 6 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 8.4 |
| 7 |  CHI | Rome Odunze | 5 | 4 | 69 | 0 | 10.9 |
| 8 |  MIA | Kevin Coleman Jr. | 3 | 3 | 46 | 1 | 13.6 |
| Average | 5.3 | 3.6 | 49.4 | 0.3 | 9.8 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 3.5 | 44.0 | 0.0 | 9.7 | ||
| High | 8 | 7 | 82 | 1 | 13.6 | ||
| Low | 3 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 5.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jameson Williams should do vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jameson Williams has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jameson Williams will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jameson Williams's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jameson Williams usually produces.
Projected is Jameson Williams's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 9 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 2 | BUF | 4 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 5.3 |
| 3 | NYJ | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 8.9 |
| 4 | CAR | 8 | 6 | 102 | 0 | 16.2 |
| 5 | ARI | 4 | 2 | 47 | 2 | 18.7 |
| 7 | GB | 9 | 5 | 91 | 2 | 26.1 |
| 8 | MIN | 6 | 4 | 70 | 1 | 17.0 |
| Williams avg | 6.3 | 3.9 | 62.4 | 0.7 | 14.4 | |
| Patriots WR2 avg | 5.3 | 3.6 | 49.4 | 0.3 | 9.8 | |
| Difference | -1.0 | -0.2 | -13.1 | -0.5 | -4.6 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 67.9 | 0.8 | 17.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Williams averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jameson WilliamsGood confidence · 17.2 proj pts7/10 start
- Jameson Williams averages 14.4 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 16.6) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Patriots have allowed 9.8 points to WR2s over 8 games (+12% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +9% adjustment.
- Last season's average (12.9) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 17.2 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJameson Williams vs the Patriots
Prediction for Jameson Williams
Nobody knows which slot Jameson Williams will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 17.2 points for Jameson Williams if playing as a WR2. Jameson Williams has averaged 14.4 over 7 games, and the Patriots have given up 9.8 to WR2s (+12% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jameson Williams scored: Wk 1 8.5, Wk 2 5.3, Wk 3 8.9, Wk 4 16.2, Wk 5 18.7, Wk 7 26.1, Wk 8 17.0. Average 14.4; weighted toward recent games it is 15.8.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Patriots allowed 9.8 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is +12%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +9% adjustment (x1.09).
4. Result. 15.8 x 1.09 = 17.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jameson Williams is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.2 points, leaning on Jameson Williams's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.6 receptions, 49.4 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Patriots across 8 games.
- The Patriots allow 9.8 PPR points to WR2s, +12% versus the league average of 8.8 (ranked 9 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Khalil Shakir (7 rec, 82 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: rec 3.6 vs 3.1; yds 49.4 vs 44.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.5 to 13.6 (median 9.7).
- Every WR2 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 2 of 8 games (25%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.