Brandon Aubrey
K
Dallas Cowboys
This is how Ks have played against the Colts in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Tyler Loop | 2 | 2 | 2 | 57 | 5 | 14.0 |
| 2 |  KC | Harrison Butker | 4 | 5 | 2 | 46 | 3 | 17.0 |
| 3 |  HOU | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 5.0 |
| 4 |  WAS | Drew Stevens | 2 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.0 |
| 5 |  PIT | Chris Boswell | 2 | 2 | 2 | 54 | 4 | 13.0 |
| 6 |  TEN | Joey Slye | 4 | 4 | 3 | 56 | 2 | 18.0 |
| 7 |  MIN | Will Reichard | 3 | 4 | 2 | 52 | 1 | 13.0 |
| 8 |  JAX | Cam Little | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6.0 |
| Average | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 40.0 | 3.0 | 11.6 | ||
| Median | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 49.0 | 2.5 | 13.0 | ||
| High | 4 | 5 | 3 | 57 | 6 | 18.0 | ||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed. Kicker scoring: FG 3/4/5 by distance, XP 1, missed FG under 40 yds -1.
How Brandon Aubrey should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Brandon Aubrey has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best K they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Brandon Aubrey will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Brandon Aubrey's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Brandon Aubrey usually produces.
Projected is Brandon Aubrey's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2.0 |
| 2 | WAS | 3 | 3 | 2 | 60 | 4 | 16.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 3 | 4 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 11.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 2 | 4 | 1 | 50 | 4 | 12.0 |
| 5 | TB | 1 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 5.0 |
| 6 | GB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| 7 | PHI | 3 | 3 | 1 | 55 | 3 | 14.0 |
| 8 | ARI | 3 | 4 | 1 | 41 | 3 | 13.0 |
| Aubrey avg | 1.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 35.6 | 2.5 | 9.3 | |
| Colts K1 avg | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 40.0 | 3.0 | 11.6 | |
| Difference | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +4.4 | +0.5 | +2.4 | |
| Projected as K1 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 44.7 | 3.1 | 12.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Aubrey averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Brandon AubreyGood confidence · 14.0 proj pts7/10 start
- Brandon Aubrey averages 9.3 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 9.7) and has played as the team's K1.
- The Colts have allowed 11.6 points to K1s over 8 games (+35% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +25% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.0) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +12%: Vegas total 51.5, implied 28.5 points for DAL (league avg 22.6); Favored by 5.5: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Projection: 14.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level K scores about 9.6 and a top-tier one about 14.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreBrandon Aubrey vs the Colts
Prediction for Brandon Aubrey
Nobody knows which slot Brandon Aubrey will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 12.5 points for Brandon Aubrey if playing as a K1. Brandon Aubrey has averaged 9.3 over 8 games, and the Colts have given up 11.6 to K1s (+35% vs the league average of 8.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Brandon Aubrey scored: Wk 1 2.0, Wk 2 16.0, Wk 3 11.0, Wk 4 12.0, Wk 5 5.0, Wk 6 1.0, Wk 7 14.0, Wk 8 13.0. Average 9.3; weighted toward recent games it is 10.0.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Colts allowed 11.6 points to their opponent's K1. The league average for that slot is 8.6, so that is +35%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +25% adjustment (x1.25).
4. Result. 10.0 x 1.25 = 12.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Brandon Aubrey is to reach it as a K1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.8 points, leaning on Brandon Aubrey's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical K swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- K1s have averaged 2.3 field goals made, 2.5 field goal attempts and 3.0 extra points against the Colts across 8 games.
- The Colts allow 11.6 PPR points to K1s, +35% versus the league average of 8.6 (ranked 1 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 6, Joey Slye (18.0 pts, 4 FG) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.6 vs 10.7; FG 2.3 vs 2.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Harrison Butker (4 FG) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: FG 2.3 vs 2.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 8 games reached 8+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.0 to 18.0 (median 13.0).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.