Garrett Wilson
WR
New York JetsQ▼ Cold
This is how WRs have played against the Patriots in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Patriots in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Cooper Kupp | 3 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 2 |  PIT | Germie Bernard | 8 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 3 |  JAX | Parker Washington | 5 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 13.0 |
| 4 |  BUF | Khalil Shakir | 8 | 7 | 82 | 0 | 13.2 |
| 5 |  LV | Cody White | 4 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 6.4 |
| Average | 5.6 | 3.6 | 47.2 | 0.2 | 9.1 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 3.0 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 7.5 | ||
| High | 8 | 7 | 82 | 1 | 13.2 | ||
| Low | 3 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 5.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Garrett Wilson should do vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Garrett Wilson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Garrett Wilson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Garrett Wilson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Garrett Wilson usually produces.
Projected is Garrett Wilson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 7 | 6 | 79 | 0 | 13.9 |
| 2 | GB | 7 | 5 | 57 | 1 | 16.7 |
| 3 | DET | 13 | 10 | 107 | 1 | 26.7 |
| 4 | CHI | 4 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 5 | CLE | 11 | 7 | 104 | 1 | 23.4 |
| 6 | NE | 6 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 8.4 |
| 7 | MIA | 3 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 4.6 |
| 8 | LV | 12 | 6 | 83 | 0 | 14.3 |
| Wilson avg | 7.9 | 5.4 | 65.9 | 0.4 | 14.2 | |
| Patriots WR2 avg | 5.6 | 3.6 | 47.2 | 0.2 | 9.1 | |
| Difference | -2.3 | -1.8 | -18.7 | -0.2 | -5.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Wilson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreGarrett Wilson vs the Patriots
Prediction for Garrett Wilson
Nobody knows which slot Garrett Wilson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 17.0 points for Garrett Wilson if playing as a WR2. Garrett Wilson has averaged 17.3 over 5 games, and the Patriots have given up 9.1 to WR2s (+3% vs the league average of 8.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Garrett Wilson scored: Wk 1 13.9, Wk 2 16.7, Wk 3 26.7, Wk 4 5.7, Wk 5 23.4. Average 17.3; weighted toward recent games it is 16.7.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Patriots allowed 9.1 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.9, so that is +3%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +2% adjustment (x1.02).
4. Result. 16.7 x 1.02 = 17.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Garrett Wilson is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.6 points, leaning on Garrett Wilson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.6 receptions, 47.2 receiving yards and 0.2 receiving TDs against the Patriots across 5 games.
- The Patriots allow 9.1 PPR points to WR2s, +3% versus the league average of 8.9 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Khalil Shakir (7 rec, 82 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: rec 3.6 vs 2.8; yds 47.2 vs 38.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 5 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.5 to 13.2 (median 7.5).
- Every WR2 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 5 games (20%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.