Christian Watson
WR
Green Bay PackersQ
- Teammate MarShawn Lloyd (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Patriots in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Patriots in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 11 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 |
| 2 |  PIT | Roman Wilson | 6 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 7.8 |
| 3 |  JAX | Jakobi Meyers | 8 | 7 | 64 | 1 | 19.4 |
| 4 |  BUF | Keon Coleman | 7 | 6 | 116 | 1 | 23.6 |
| 5 |  LV | Tre Tucker | 5 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 6 |  NYJ | Omar Cooper Jr. | 7 | 6 | 103 | 1 | 22.3 |
| 7 |  CHI | Luther Burden III | 4 | 4 | 130 | 1 | 23.7 |
| 8 |  MIA | Malik Washington | 6 | 5 | 40 | 1 | 15.0 |
| Average | 6.8 | 5.6 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 18.2 | ||
| Median | 6.5 | 5.5 | 83.5 | 1.0 | 20.9 | ||
| High | 11 | 8 | 130 | 1 | 26.2 | ||
| Low | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 7.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Christian Watson should do vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Christian Watson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Christian Watson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Christian Watson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Christian Watson usually produces.
Projected is Christian Watson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 8 | 6 | 147 | 2 | 32.7 |
| 2 | NYJ | 11 | 4 | 41 | 1 | 14.1 |
| 3 | ATL | 10 | 7 | 96 | 1 | 22.6 |
| 4 | TB | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 7.7 |
| 5 | CHI | 8 | 6 | 143 | 2 | 32.3 |
| 6 | DAL | 8 | 3 | 64 | 0 | 9.4 |
| 7 | DET | 8 | 5 | 57 | 0 | 10.7 |
| 8 | CAR | 10 | 8 | 113 | 0 | 17.3 |
| Watson avg | 8.3 | 5.3 | 88.5 | 0.8 | 18.4 | |
| Patriots WR1 avg | 6.8 | 5.6 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 18.2 | |
| Difference | -1.5 | +0.4 | -8.0 | +0.0 | -0.2 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 92.4 | 0.8 | 16.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Watson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Christian WatsonGood confidence · 16.9 proj pts7/10 start
- Christian Watson averages 18.4 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 16.7) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Patriots have allowed 18.2 points to WR1s over 8 games (+6% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +4% adjustment.
- Last season's average (13.2) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -3%: Vegas total 44.5, implied 20.8 points for GB (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 3: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (50F, 11 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+4%): Opposing starter Marcus Jones (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Carlton Davis III (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 16.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreChristian Watson vs the Patriots
Prediction for Christian Watson
Nobody knows which slot Christian Watson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 16.7 points for Christian Watson if playing as a WR1. Christian Watson has averaged 18.4 over 8 games, and the Patriots have given up 18.2 to WR1s (+6% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Christian Watson scored: Wk 1 32.7, Wk 2 14.1, Wk 3 22.6, Wk 4 7.7, Wk 5 32.3, Wk 6 9.4, Wk 7 10.7, Wk 8 17.3. Average 18.4; weighted toward recent games it is 16.0.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Patriots allowed 18.2 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is +6%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +4% adjustment (x1.04).
4. Result. 16.0 x 1.04 = 16.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Christian Watson is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.9 points, leaning on Christian Watson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 5.6 receptions, 80.5 receiving yards and 0.8 receiving TDs against the Patriots across 8 games.
- The Patriots allow 18.2 PPR points to WR1s, +6% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 15 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Roman Wilson (7.8 pts, 28 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 18.2 vs 19.7; yds 80.5 vs 88.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (122 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 80.5 vs 74.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 6 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.5 to 26.2 (median 20.9).
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 6 of 8 games (75%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.