Jordan Addison
WR
Minnesota Vikings
- Quarterback Kyler Murray is questionable. Watch the status.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Bills in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Bills in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | Jaylin Noel | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 2 |  DET | Jameson Williams | 4 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 5.3 |
| 3 |  LAC | Ladd McConkey | 5 | 4 | 66 | 0 | 10.6 |
| 4 |  NE | Efton Chism III | 4 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 12.2 |
| 5 |  LA | Davante Adams | 7 | 5 | 51 | 2 | 22.1 |
| 6 |  LV | Jalen Nailor | 4 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9 |
| 8 |  BAL | Ja'Kobi Lane | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Average | 3.9 | 2.4 | 38.1 | 0.4 | 8.8 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 2.0 | 42.0 | 0.0 | 7.3 | ||
| High | 7 | 5 | 66 | 2 | 22.1 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jordan Addison should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jordan Addison has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jordan Addison will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jordan Addison's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jordan Addison usually produces.
Projected is Jordan Addison's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | CHI | 5 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 |
| 3 | TB | 9 | 5 | 90 | 1 | 20.0 |
| 4 | MIA | 6 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 9.1 |
| 7 | IND | 3 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.3 |
| 8 | DET | 8 | 3 | 66 | 0 | 11.6 |
| Addison avg | 5.5 | 2.7 | 41.5 | 0.2 | 8.2 | |
| Bills WR2 avg | 3.9 | 2.4 | 38.1 | 0.4 | 8.8 | |
| Difference | -1.6 | -0.2 | -3.4 | +0.3 | +0.6 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 41.7 | 0.2 | 9.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Addison averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jordan AddisonGood confidence · 9.1 proj pts1/10 start
- Jordan Addison averages 8.2 PPR points over 6 games (recent-weighted 8.9) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Bills have allowed 8.8 points to WR2s over 7 games (+1% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +0% adjustment.
- Last season's average (9.7) is blended in at 25% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +0%: Vegas total 44.5, implied 20.8 points for MIN (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 3: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- QB change: Kyler Murray is now throwing (6.8 yds/att vs 6.9 earlier), x0.99.
- Flag: Quarterback Kyler Murray is questionable. Watch the status.
- Projection: 9.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJordan Addison vs the Bills
Prediction for Jordan Addison
Nobody knows which slot Jordan Addison will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 9.1 points for Jordan Addison if playing as a WR2. Jordan Addison has averaged 8.2 over 6 games, and the Bills have given up 8.8 to WR2s (+1% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jordan Addison scored: Wk 1 0.0, Wk 2 4.1, Wk 3 20.0, Wk 4 9.1, Wk 7 4.3, Wk 8 11.6. Average 8.2; weighted toward recent games it is 9.1.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Bills allowed 8.8 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is +1%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +0% adjustment (x1.00).
4. Result. 9.1 x 1.00 = 9.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jordan Addison is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.1 points, leaning on Jordan Addison's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 2.4 receptions, 38.1 receiving yards and 0.4 receiving TDs against the Bills across 7 games.
- The Bills allow 8.8 PPR points to WR2s, +1% versus the league average of 8.8 (ranked 15 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Davante Adams (22.1 pts, 5 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.8 vs 6.6; rec 2.4 vs 2.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 8, Ja'Kobi Lane (2.3 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.8 vs 9.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.9 to 22.1 (median 7.3).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 2 of 7 games (29%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.