Zay Flowers
WR
Baltimore Ravens
This is how WRs have played against the Cowboys in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Cowboys in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYG | Malik Nabers | 9 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 2 |  WAS | Stefon Diggs | 6 | 5 | 47 | 2 | 21.7 |
| Average | 7.5 | 5.5 | 58.0 | 1.0 | 17.3 | ||
| Median | 7.5 | 5.5 | 58.0 | 1.0 | 17.3 | ||
| High | 9 | 6 | 69 | 2 | 21.7 | ||
| Low | 6 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 12.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Zay Flowers should do vs the CowboysSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cowboys, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Zay Flowers has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cowboys opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Zay Flowers will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cowboys avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Zay Flowers's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Zay Flowers usually produces.
Projected is Zay Flowers's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cowboys were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 6 | 5 | 150 | 1 | 26.0 |
| 3 | DAL | 6 | 5 | 84 | 0 | 15.4 |
| 4 | TEN | 10 | 8 | 118 | 1 | 25.8 |
| 5 | ATL | 9 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 14.6 |
| 6 | CLE | 11 | 6 | 66 | 0 | 12.7 |
| 7 | CIN | 11 | 8 | 137 | 1 | 27.7 |
| 8 | BUF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Flowers avg | 8.3 | 5.7 | 86.9 | 0.4 | 17.5 | |
| Cowboys WR1 avg | 7.5 | 5.5 | 58.0 | 1.0 | 17.3 | |
| Difference | -0.8 | -0.2 | -28.9 | +0.6 | -0.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Flowers averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreZay Flowers vs the Cowboys
Prediction for Zay Flowers
Nobody knows which slot Zay Flowers will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cowboys.
I predict about 18.3 points for Zay Flowers if playing as a WR1. Zay Flowers has averaged 26.0 over 1 game, and the Cowboys have given up 17.3 to WR1s (+1% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Zay Flowers scored: Wk 1 26.0. Average 26.0; weighted toward recent games it is 18.2.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Cowboys allowed 17.3 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is +1%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +0% adjustment (x1.00).
4. Result. 18.2 x 1.00 = 18.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Zay Flowers is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (18.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.0 points, leaning on Zay Flowers's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 18.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 5.5 receptions, 58.0 receiving yards and 1.0 receiving TDs against the Cowboys across 2 games.
- The Cowboys allow 17.3 PPR points to WR1s, +1% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 15 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 12.9 to 21.7 (median 17.3).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.