Zay Flowers
WR
Baltimore Ravens
This is how WRs have played against the Jaguars in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Jaguars in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CLE | Denzel Boston | 4 | 2 | 59 | 1 | 13.9 |
| 2 |  DEN | Jaylen Waddle | 10 | 8 | 138 | 0 | 21.8 |
| 3 |  NE | Mack Hollins | 9 | 6 | 87 | 0 | 14.7 |
| 4 |  CIN | Tee Higgins | 16 | 11 | 157 | 0 | 26.7 |
| 5 |  PHI | Darius Cooper | 3 | 2 | 71 | 1 | 15.1 |
| 6 |  HOU | Jaylin Noel | 4 | 4 | 107 | 1 | 20.7 |
| 8 |  IND | Keenan Allen | 7 | 7 | 67 | 0 | 13.7 |
| Average | 7.6 | 5.7 | 98.0 | 0.4 | 18.1 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 6.0 | 87.0 | 0.0 | 15.1 | ||
| High | 16 | 11 | 157 | 1 | 26.7 | ||
| Low | 3 | 2 | 59 | 0 | 13.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Zay Flowers should do vs the JaguarsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jaguars, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Zay Flowers has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jaguars opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Zay Flowers will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jaguars avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Zay Flowers's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Zay Flowers usually produces.
Projected is Zay Flowers's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jaguars were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 6 | 5 | 150 | 1 | 26.0 |
| 3 | DAL | 6 | 5 | 84 | 0 | 15.4 |
| 4 | TEN | 10 | 8 | 118 | 1 | 25.8 |
| 5 | ATL | 9 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 14.6 |
| 6 | CLE | 11 | 6 | 66 | 0 | 12.7 |
| 7 | CIN | 11 | 8 | 137 | 1 | 27.7 |
| 8 | BUF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Flowers avg | 8.3 | 5.7 | 86.9 | 0.4 | 17.5 | |
| Jaguars WR1 avg | 7.6 | 5.7 | 98.0 | 0.4 | 18.1 | |
| Difference | -0.7 | +0.0 | +11.1 | +0.0 | +0.6 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 90.2 | 0.4 | 15.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Flowers averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Zay FlowersGood confidence · 12.6 proj pts7/10 start
- Zay Flowers averages 17.5 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 15.2) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Jaguars have allowed 18.1 points to WR1s over 7 games (+6% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +4% adjustment.
- Last season's average (14.3) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -12%: Vegas total 39.5, implied 14.8 points for BAL (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 10: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (68F, 1 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- QB change: Joe Fagnano is now throwing (6.4 yds/att vs 7.6 earlier), x0.90.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Travon Walker (DL) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter DaVon Hamilton (DL) is on IR, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 12.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreZay Flowers vs the Jaguars
Prediction for Zay Flowers
Nobody knows which slot Zay Flowers will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jaguars.
I predict about 15.6 points for Zay Flowers if playing as a WR1. Zay Flowers has averaged 17.5 over 7 games, and the Jaguars have given up 18.1 to WR1s (+6% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Zay Flowers scored: Wk 1 26.0, Wk 3 15.4, Wk 4 25.8, Wk 5 14.6, Wk 6 12.7, Wk 7 27.7, Wk 8 0.0. Average 17.5; weighted toward recent games it is 15.0.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Jaguars allowed 18.1 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is +6%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +4% adjustment (x1.04).
4. Result. 15.0 x 1.04 = 15.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Zay Flowers is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.9 points, leaning on Zay Flowers's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 5.7 receptions, 98.0 receiving yards and 0.4 receiving TDs against the Jaguars across 7 games.
- The Jaguars allow 18.1 PPR points to WR1s, +6% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Tee Higgins (26.7 pts, 11 rec, 157 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 18.1 vs 16.7; rec 5.7 vs 4.8; yds 98.0 vs 88.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Darius Cooper (2 rec) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: rec 5.7 vs 6.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 7 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 13.7 to 26.7 (median 15.1).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 50 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 7 games (43%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.