Zay Flowers
WR
Baltimore Ravens
This is how WRs have played against the Titans in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Titans in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYJ | Garrett Wilson | 7 | 6 | 79 | 0 | 13.9 |
| 2 |  PHI | DeVonta Smith | 13 | 10 | 117 | 1 | 27.7 |
| 3 |  NYG | Malik Nabers | 6 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 7.6 |
| Average | 8.7 | 7.0 | 74.0 | 0.3 | 16.4 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 6.0 | 79.0 | 0.0 | 13.9 | ||
| High | 13 | 10 | 117 | 1 | 27.7 | ||
| Low | 6 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 7.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Zay Flowers should do vs the TitansSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Titans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Zay Flowers has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Titans opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Zay Flowers will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Titans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Zay Flowers's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Zay Flowers usually produces.
Projected is Zay Flowers's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Titans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 6 | 5 | 150 | 1 | 26.0 |
| 3 | DAL | 6 | 5 | 84 | 0 | 15.4 |
| 4 | TEN | 10 | 8 | 118 | 1 | 25.8 |
| 5 | ATL | 9 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 14.6 |
| 6 | CLE | 11 | 6 | 66 | 0 | 12.7 |
| 7 | CIN | 11 | 8 | 137 | 1 | 27.7 |
| 8 | BUF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Flowers avg | 8.3 | 5.7 | 86.9 | 0.4 | 17.5 | |
| Titans WR1 avg | 8.7 | 7.0 | 74.0 | 0.3 | 16.4 | |
| Difference | +0.4 | +1.3 | -12.9 | -0.1 | -1.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Flowers averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreZay Flowers vs the Titans
Prediction for Zay Flowers
Nobody knows which slot Zay Flowers will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Titans.
I predict about 16.8 points for Zay Flowers if playing as a WR1. Zay Flowers has averaged 20.7 over 2 games, and the Titans have given up 16.4 to WR1s (-4% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Zay Flowers scored: Wk 1 26.0, Wk 3 15.4. Average 20.7; weighted toward recent games it is 17.2.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Titans allowed 16.4 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is -4%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -2% adjustment (x0.98).
4. Result. 17.2 x 0.98 = 16.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Zay Flowers is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.1 points, leaning on Zay Flowers's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 7.0 receptions, 74.0 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Titans across 3 games.
- The Titans allow 16.4 PPR points to WR1s, -4% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 18 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, DeVonta Smith (27.7 pts, 10 rec, 117 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.4 vs 10.8; rec 7.0 vs 5.5; yds 74.0 vs 52.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Malik Nabers (7.6 pts, 26 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.4 vs 20.8; yds 74.0 vs 98.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 3 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.6 to 27.7 (median 13.9).
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 3 games (33%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.