Rashee Rice
WR
Kansas City ChiefsQ
- Teammate Travis Kelce (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Jets in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Jets in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TEN | Elic Ayomanor | 3 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 8.1 |
| 2 |  GB | Matthew Golden | 6 | 4 | 58 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 3 |  DET | Isaac TeSlaa | 3 | 3 | 66 | 0 | 9.6 |
| 4 |  CHI | Luther Burden III | 6 | 4 | 63 | 0 | 11.4 |
| 5 |  CLE | Isaiah Bond | 7 | 3 | 74 | 0 | 10.4 |
| 6 |  NE | Romeo Doubs | 1 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 11.2 |
| 7 |  MIA | Malik Washington | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 6.5 |
| 8 |  LV | Tre Tucker | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Average | 3.8 | 2.4 | 42.6 | 0.3 | 8.4 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 3.0 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 9.7 | ||
| High | 7 | 4 | 74 | 1 | 11.4 | ||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Rashee Rice should do vs the JetsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jets, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Rashee Rice has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jets opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Rashee Rice will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jets avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Rashee Rice's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Rashee Rice usually produces.
Projected is Rashee Rice's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jets were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 9.9 |
| 2 | IND | 6 | 4 | 83 | 0 | 12.3 |
| 3 | MIA | 9 | 7 | 88 | 0 | 15.8 |
| 8 | DEN | 8 | 7 | 53 | 1 | 18.3 |
| Rice avg | 6.3 | 5.0 | 60.8 | 0.5 | 14.1 | |
| Jets WR2 avg | 3.8 | 2.4 | 42.6 | 0.3 | 8.4 | |
| Difference | -2.5 | -2.6 | -18.1 | -0.3 | -5.7 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 58.8 | 0.5 | 15.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Rice averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Rashee RiceGood confidence · 17.3 proj pts7/10 start
- Rashee Rice averages 14.1 PPR points over 4 games (recent-weighted 14.9) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Jets have allowed 8.4 points to WR2s over 8 games (-4% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -3% adjustment.
- Last season's average (18.8) is blended in at 33% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +10%: Vegas total 47.5, implied 28.8 points for KC (league avg 22.6); Favored by 10: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (65F, 9 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Harrison Phillips (DL) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+0%): Teammate Travis Kelce (a top target) is questionable, which can mean extra looks for Rice.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 17.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreRashee Rice vs the Jets
Prediction for Rashee Rice
Nobody knows which slot Rashee Rice will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jets.
I predict about 15.6 points for Rashee Rice if playing as a WR2. Rashee Rice has averaged 14.1 over 4 games, and the Jets have given up 8.4 to WR2s (-4% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Rashee Rice scored: Wk 1 9.9, Wk 2 12.3, Wk 3 15.8, Wk 8 18.3. Average 14.1; weighted toward recent games it is 16.2.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Jets allowed 8.4 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is -4%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -3% adjustment (x0.97).
4. Result. 16.2 x 0.97 = 15.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Rashee Rice is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.3 points, leaning on Rashee Rice's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 2.4 receptions, 42.6 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Jets across 8 games.
- The Jets allow 8.4 PPR points to WR2s, -4% versus the league average of 8.8 (ranked 20 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 8, Tre Tucker (0.0 pts, 0 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.4 vs 9.6; yds 42.6 vs 48.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Isaiah Bond (74 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 42.6 vs 38.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 11.4 (median 9.7).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 2 of 8 games (25%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.