Jayden Reed
WR
Green Bay PackersIR
- Teammate Christian Watson (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Bears in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Bears in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CAR | Xavier Legette | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2 |  MIN | Myles Price | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 3 |  PHI | Dontayvion Wicks | 5 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 5.2 |
| 4 |  NYJ | Sterling Shepard | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Average | 2.3 | 0.5 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | ||
| Median | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| High | 5 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 5.2 | ||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jayden Reed should do vs the BearsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bears, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jayden Reed has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bears opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jayden Reed will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bears avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jayden Reed's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jayden Reed usually produces.
Projected is Jayden Reed's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bears were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 7 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 5.0 |
| 2 | NYJ | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Reed avg | 4.0 | 2.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 3.2 | |
| Bears WR3 avg | 2.3 | 0.5 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | |
| Difference | -1.8 | -1.5 | -4.0 | +0.0 | -1.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Reed averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJayden Reed vs the Bears
Prediction for Jayden Reed
Nobody knows which slot Jayden Reed will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bears.
I predict about 4.4 points for Jayden Reed if playing as a WR3. Jayden Reed has averaged 3.2 over 2 games, and the Bears have given up 1.3 to WR3s (-71% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jayden Reed scored: Wk 1 5.0, Wk 2 1.4. Average 3.2; weighted toward recent games it is 6.3.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Bears allowed 1.3 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is -71%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -30% adjustment (x0.70).
4. Result. 6.3 x 0.70 = 4.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jayden Reed is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (4.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.7 points, leaning on Jayden Reed's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 0.5 receptions, 8.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Bears across 4 games.
- The Bears allow 1.3 PPR points to WR3s, -71% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 32 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 4 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 5.2 (median 0.0).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 4 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.