AJ Barner
TE
Seattle Seahawks
- Quarterback Sam Darnold is out, so a backup is throwing. Barner's numbers may take a hit.
- Teammate Rashid Shaheed (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Rams in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Rams in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | Luke Farrell | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 2 |  NYG | Isaiah Likely | 10 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 8.3 |
| 3 |  DEN | Nate Adkins | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 7.8 |
| 4 |  PHI | Zach Ertz | 4 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3.3 |
| 5 |  BUF | Dalton Kincaid | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 6 |  ARI | Trey McBride | 9 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 12.3 |
| 7 |  LV | Brock Bowers | 8 | 6 | 73 | 0 | 13.3 |
| 8 |  LAC | Oronde Gadsden II | 5 | 5 | 52 | 0 | 10.2 |
| Average | 5.3 | 3.6 | 32.3 | 0.1 | 7.8 | ||
| Median | 4.5 | 3.5 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 8.1 | ||
| High | 10 | 7 | 73 | 1 | 13.3 | ||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How AJ Barner should do vs the RamsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Rams, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game AJ Barner has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Rams opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot AJ Barner will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Rams avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus AJ Barner's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than AJ Barner usually produces.
Projected is AJ Barner's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Rams were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3.3 |
| 2 | ARI | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 3 | WAS | 9 | 5 | 69 | 0 | 11.9 |
| 4 | LAC | 3 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2.2 |
| 5 | SF | 5 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 5.0 |
| 6 | DEN | 4 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 4.6 |
| 7 | KC | 5 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 8.6 |
| 8 | CHI | 5 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 4.3 |
| Barner avg | 4.3 | 2.6 | 25.4 | 0.0 | 6.0 | |
| Rams TE1 avg | 5.3 | 3.6 | 32.3 | 0.1 | 7.8 | |
| Difference | +1.0 | +1.0 | +6.9 | +0.1 | +1.9 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 20.7 | 0.0 | 5.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Barner averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · AJ BarnerGood confidence · 5.3 proj pts1/10 start
- AJ Barner averages 6.0 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 5.8) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Rams have allowed 7.8 points to TE1s over 8 games (-26% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -19% adjustment.
- Last season's average (9.2) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 5.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreAJ Barner vs the Rams
Prediction for AJ Barner
Nobody knows which slot AJ Barner will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Rams.
I predict about 5.3 points for AJ Barner if playing as a TE1. AJ Barner has averaged 6.0 over 8 games, and the Rams have given up 7.8 to TE1s (-26% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. AJ Barner scored: Wk 1 3.3, Wk 2 7.9, Wk 3 11.9, Wk 4 2.2, Wk 5 5.0, Wk 6 4.6, Wk 7 8.6, Wk 8 4.3. Average 6.0; weighted toward recent games it is 6.5.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Rams allowed 7.8 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is -26%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -19% adjustment (x0.81).
4. Result. 6.5 x 0.81 = 5.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely AJ Barner is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.2 points, leaning on AJ Barner's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 5.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 3.6 receptions, 32.3 receiving yards and 0.1 receiving TDs against the Rams across 8 games.
- The Rams allow 7.8 PPR points to TE1s, -26% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 29 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 7, Brock Bowers (13.3 pts, 73 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.8 vs 7.1; yds 32.3 vs 26.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 6, Trey McBride (12.3 pts, 7 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.8 vs 7.2; rec 3.6 vs 3.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 8 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.3 to 13.3 (median 8.1).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 8 games (13%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.