Drake Maye
QB
New England Patriots▲ Hot
- Top target Hunter Henry is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Bears in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CAR | Bryce Young | 23 | 37 | 361 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 31.4 |
| 2 |  MIN | Carson Wentz | 11 | 20 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 6.3 |
| 3 |  PHI | Jalen Hurts | 16 | 25 | 153 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 1 | 12.6 |
| 4 |  NYJ | Geno Smith | 8 | 15 | 119 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 5 |  GB | Jordan Love | 25 | 31 | 367 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 25.3 |
| 6 |  ATL | Michael Penix Jr. | 19 | 33 | 225 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23.1 |
| Average | 17.0 | 26.8 | 228.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 8.0 | 0.3 | 17.9 | ||
| Median | 17.5 | 28.0 | 189.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 17.9 | ||
| High | 25 | 37 | 367 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 1 | 31.4 | ||
| Low | 8 | 15 | 119 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Drake Maye should do vs the BearsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bears, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Drake Maye has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bears opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Drake Maye will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bears avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Drake Maye's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Drake Maye usually produces.
Projected is Drake Maye's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bears were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 23 | 33 | 178 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 2 | PIT | 14 | 22 | 208 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 8.0 |
| 3 | JAX | 14 | 25 | 199 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 4 | BUF | 22 | 37 | 269 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 54 | 0 | 26.2 |
| 5 | LV | 26 | 34 | 374 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 1 | 39.5 |
| 6 | NYJ | 18 | 32 | 235 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 23.8 |
| 7 | CHI | 24 | 31 | 321 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 27.4 |
| 8 | MIA | 16 | 20 | 199 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 22.5 |
| Maye avg | 19.6 | 29.3 | 247.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 5.8 | 27.0 | 0.4 | 20.1 | |
| Bears QB1 avg | 17.0 | 26.8 | 228.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 8.0 | 0.3 | 17.9 | |
| Difference | -2.6 | -2.4 | -19.9 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -3.9 | -19.0 | -0.0 | -2.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Maye averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreDrake Maye vs the Bears
Prediction for Drake Maye
Nobody knows which slot Drake Maye will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bears.
I predict about 22.6 points for Drake Maye if playing as a QB1. Drake Maye has averaged 18.5 over 6 games, and the Bears have given up 17.9 to QB1s (+8% vs the league average of 16.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Drake Maye scored: Wk 1 9.8, Wk 2 8.0, Wk 3 3.8, Wk 4 26.2, Wk 5 39.5, Wk 6 23.8. Average 18.5; weighted toward recent games it is 21.5.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Bears allowed 17.9 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.7, so that is +8%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +5% adjustment (x1.05).
4. Result. 21.5 x 1.05 = 22.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Drake Maye is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (22.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 13.6 points, leaning on Drake Maye's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 23.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 228.0 passing yards, 1.5 passing TDs and 8.0 rushing yards against the Bears across 6 games.
- The Bears allow 17.9 PPR points to QB1s, +8% versus the league average of 16.7 (ranked 13 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Bryce Young (31.4 pts, 361 pass yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 17.9 vs 15.2; pass yds 228.0 vs 201.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Jordan Love (367 pass yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pass yds 228.0 vs 200.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 6 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.3 to 31.4 (median 17.9).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 100 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 6 games (83%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.