Ray Davis
RB
Buffalo Bills
- Teammate Dalton Kincaid (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate DJ Moore (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Ravens in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Ravens in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  IND | Seth McGowan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 |
| 2 |  NO | Travis Etienne | 8 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7.1 |
| 3 |  DAL | Tyler Goodson | 6 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 2.7 |
| 4 |  TEN | Tyjae Spears | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 1.6 |
| 5 |  ATL | Brian Robinson | 7 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 |
| 6 |  CLE | Audric Estimé | 9 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 7 |  CIN | Samaje Perine | 4 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.6 |
| Average | 5.1 | 15.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.2 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | ||
| High | 9 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7.9 | ||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 1.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Ray Davis should do vs the RavensSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Ravens, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ray Davis has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Ravens opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ray Davis will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Ravens avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ray Davis's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ray Davis usually produces.
Projected is Ray Davis's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Ravens were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | NE | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.7 |
| 5 | LA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 4.3 |
| 6 | LV | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.9 |
| 8 | BAL | 6 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 |
| Davis avg | 2.2 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | |
| Ravens RB2 avg | 5.1 | 15.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.2 | |
| Difference | +2.9 | +6.6 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.1 | -8.0 | +0.0 | +2.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Davis averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreRay Davis vs the Ravens
Prediction for Ray Davis
Nobody knows which slot Ray Davis will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Ravens.
I predict about 2.6 points for Ray Davis if playing as a RB2. Ray Davis has averaged 2.0 over 4 games, and the Ravens have given up 4.2 to RB2s (-16% vs the league average of 5.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ray Davis scored: Wk 1 0.3, Wk 4 1.7, Wk 5 4.3, Wk 6 1.9. Average 2.0; weighted toward recent games it is 3.0.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Ravens allowed 4.2 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 5.0, so that is -16%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -11% adjustment (x0.89).
4. Result. 3.0 x 0.89 = 2.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ray Davis is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (2.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.6 points, leaning on Ray Davis's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 5.1 carries, 15.0 rushing yards and 0.7 receptions against the Ravens across 7 games.
- The Ravens allow 4.2 PPR points to RB2s, -16% versus the league average of 5.0 (ranked 23 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.0 to 7.9 (median 2.7).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 2 of 7 games (29%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.