J.J. McCarthy
QB
New York Giants
- Top target Malik Nabers is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Lions in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NO | Tyler Shough | 35 | 56 | 410 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 23.2 |
| 2 |  BUF | Josh Allen | 20 | 31 | 248 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 69 | 2 | 40.8 |
| 3 |  NYJ | Geno Smith | 31 | 37 | 321 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 26.0 |
| 4 |  CAR | Bryce Young | 29 | 41 | 329 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 21.5 |
| 5 |  ARI | Jacoby Brissett | 29 | 47 | 292 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 25.3 |
| 7 |  GB | Jordan Love | 27 | 45 | 274 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.0 |
| 8 |  MIN | Kyler Murray | 17 | 29 | 210 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 19.9 |
| Average | 26.9 | 40.9 | 297.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 20.9 | 0.3 | 24.8 | ||
| Median | 29.0 | 41.0 | 292.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 23.2 | ||
| High | 35 | 56 | 410 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 69 | 2 | 40.8 | ||
| Low | 17 | 29 | 210 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How J.J. McCarthy should do vs the LionsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Lions, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game J.J. McCarthy has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Lions opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot J.J. McCarthy will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Lions avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus J.J. McCarthy's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than J.J. McCarthy usually produces.
Projected is J.J. McCarthy's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Lions were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | NO | 11 | 21 | 243 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 16.3 |
| 7 | HOU | 20 | 28 | 252 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10.2 |
| McCarthy avg | 15.5 | 24.5 | 247.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 13.3 | |
| Lions QB1 avg | 26.9 | 40.9 | 297.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 20.9 | 0.3 | 24.8 | |
| Difference | +11.4 | +16.4 | +50.2 | +2.1 | +0.2 | +2.6 | +7.4 | +0.3 | +11.6 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 20.2 | 31.9 | 321.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 17.6 | 0.0 | 16.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what McCarthy averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · J.J. McCarthyMedium confidence · 16.5 proj pts5/10 start
- J.J. McCarthy averages 13.3 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 12.9) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Lions have allowed 24.8 points to QB1s over 7 games (+51% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +30% adjustment.
- Last season's average (12.5) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 16.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 19.1 and a top-tier one about 23.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJ.J. McCarthy vs the Lions
Prediction for J.J. McCarthy
Nobody knows which slot J.J. McCarthy will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Lions.
I predict about 16.5 points for J.J. McCarthy if playing as a QB1. J.J. McCarthy has averaged 13.3 over 2 games, and the Lions have given up 24.8 to QB1s (+51% vs the league average of 16.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. J.J. McCarthy scored: Wk 6 16.3, Wk 7 10.2. Average 13.3; weighted toward recent games it is 12.7.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Lions allowed 24.8 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.5, so that is +51%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 12.7 x 1.30 = 16.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely J.J. McCarthy is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.9 points, leaning on J.J. McCarthy's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 297.7 passing yards, 2.6 passing TDs and 20.9 rushing yards against the Lions across 7 games.
- The Lions allow 24.8 PPR points to QB1s, +51% versus the league average of 16.5 (ranked 1 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Josh Allen (40.8 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 24.8 vs 22.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 7 of 7 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 17.0 to 40.8 (median 23.2).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 200 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 7 of 7 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.