KeAndre Lambert-Smith
WR
Los Angeles Chargers
This is how WRs have played against the Broncos in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Broncos in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KC | Xavier Worthy | 6 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 4.8 |
| 2 |  JAX | Brian Thomas Jr. | 8 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 3 |  LA | Konata Mumpfield | 8 | 4 | 93 | 1 | 19.3 |
| 4 |  SF | Mike Evans | 8 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 5 | LAC | Tre Harris | 4 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 6 |  SEA | Rashid Shaheed | 8 | 5 | 66 | 0 | 11.8 |
| 7 |  ARI | Jalen Brooks | 6 | 1 | 35 | 0 | 4.5 |
| 8 | KC | Xavier Worthy | 6 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 4.3 |
| Average | 6.8 | 3.3 | 44.6 | 0.1 | 8.5 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 3.0 | 37.5 | 0.0 | 5.9 | ||
| High | 8 | 5 | 93 | 1 | 19.3 | ||
| Low | 4 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How KeAndre Lambert-Smith should do vs the BroncosSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Broncos, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game KeAndre Lambert-Smith has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Broncos opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot KeAndre Lambert-Smith will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Broncos avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus KeAndre Lambert-Smith's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than KeAndre Lambert-Smith usually produces.
Projected is KeAndre Lambert-Smith's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Broncos were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | KC | 9 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 6.2 |
| Lambert-Smith avg | 9.0 | 5.0 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 6.2 | |
| Broncos WR2 avg | 6.8 | 3.3 | 44.6 | 0.1 | 8.5 | |
| Difference | -2.3 | -1.8 | +12.6 | +0.1 | +2.3 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 31.3 | 0.0 | 3.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Lambert-Smith averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · KeAndre Lambert-SmithMedium confidence · 3.5 proj pts1/10 start
- KeAndre Lambert-Smith averages 6.2 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 6.2) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Broncos have allowed 8.5 points to WR2s over 8 games (-3% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -2% adjustment.
- Last season's average (2.3) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 3.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreKeAndre Lambert-Smith vs the Broncos
Prediction for KeAndre Lambert-Smith
Nobody knows which slot KeAndre Lambert-Smith will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Broncos.
I predict about 3.5 points for KeAndre Lambert-Smith if playing as a WR2. KeAndre Lambert-Smith has averaged 6.2 over 1 game, and the Broncos have given up 8.5 to WR2s (-3% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. KeAndre Lambert-Smith scored: Wk 6 6.2. Average 6.2; weighted toward recent games it is 3.6.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Broncos allowed 8.5 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is -3%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -2% adjustment (x0.98).
4. Result. 3.6 x 0.98 = 3.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely KeAndre Lambert-Smith is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.1 points, leaning on KeAndre Lambert-Smith's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.3 receptions, 44.6 receiving yards and 0.1 receiving TDs against the Broncos across 8 games.
- The Broncos allow 8.5 PPR points to WR2s, -3% versus the league average of 8.8 (ranked 19 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Konata Mumpfield (19.3 pts, 93 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.5 vs 6.9; yds 44.6 vs 37.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Mike Evans (76 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 44.6 vs 40.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.6 to 19.3 (median 5.9).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 8 games (13%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.