KeAndre Lambert-Smith
WR
Los Angeles Chargers
This is how WRs have played against the Texans in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Texans in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUF | Josh Palmer | 2 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 10.4 |
| 2 |  CIN | Tee Higgins | 10 | 5 | 95 | 0 | 14.5 |
| 3 |  IND | Josh Downs | 11 | 5 | 77 | 0 | 12.7 |
| 4 |  DAL | George Pickens | 3 | 2 | 75 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 5 |  TEN | Chimere Dike | 4 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 6 |  JAX | Parker Washington | 11 | 4 | 64 | 0 | 10.4 |
| 7 |  NYG | Malachi Fields | 5 | 4 | 83 | 0 | 12.3 |
| Average | 6.6 | 3.4 | 65.1 | 0.1 | 10.8 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 4.0 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 10.4 | ||
| High | 11 | 5 | 95 | 1 | 14.5 | ||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 5.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How KeAndre Lambert-Smith should do vs the TexansSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Texans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game KeAndre Lambert-Smith has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Texans opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot KeAndre Lambert-Smith will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Texans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus KeAndre Lambert-Smith's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than KeAndre Lambert-Smith usually produces.
Projected is KeAndre Lambert-Smith's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Texans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | KC | 9 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 6.2 |
| Lambert-Smith avg | 9.0 | 5.0 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 6.2 | |
| Texans WR2 avg | 6.6 | 3.4 | 65.1 | 0.1 | 10.8 | |
| Difference | -2.4 | -1.6 | +33.1 | +0.1 | +4.6 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 37.2 | 0.0 | 4.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Lambert-Smith averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · KeAndre Lambert-SmithMedium confidence · 4.0 proj pts1/10 start
- KeAndre Lambert-Smith averages 6.2 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 6.2) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Texans have allowed 10.8 points to WR2s over 7 games (+23% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +16% adjustment.
- Last season's average (2.3) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -6%: Vegas total 40.5, implied 17.5 points for LAC (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 5.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Reed Blankenship (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Azeez Al-Shaair (LB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 4.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreKeAndre Lambert-Smith vs the Texans
Prediction for KeAndre Lambert-Smith
Nobody knows which slot KeAndre Lambert-Smith will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Texans.
I predict about 4.2 points for KeAndre Lambert-Smith if playing as a WR2. KeAndre Lambert-Smith has averaged 6.2 over 1 game, and the Texans have given up 10.8 to WR2s (+23% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. KeAndre Lambert-Smith scored: Wk 6 6.2. Average 6.2; weighted toward recent games it is 3.6.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Texans allowed 10.8 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is +23%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +16% adjustment (x1.16).
4. Result. 3.6 x 1.16 = 4.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely KeAndre Lambert-Smith is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (4.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.5 points, leaning on KeAndre Lambert-Smith's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.4 receptions, 65.1 receiving yards and 0.1 receiving TDs against the Texans across 7 games.
- The Texans allow 10.8 PPR points to WR2s, +23% versus the league average of 8.8 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Chimere Dike (28 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: yds 65.1 vs 71.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.8 to 14.5 (median 10.4).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 7 games (14%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.