Jacory Croskey-Merritt
RB
Washington CommandersIR
- Teammate Terry McLaurin (a top target) is on IR, so Croskey-Merritt may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Texans in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Texans in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUF | James Cook | 13 | 57 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9.9 |
| 2 |  CIN | Chase Brown | 20 | 80 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11.2 |
| 3 |  IND | Jonathan Taylor | 23 | 68 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9.2 |
| 4 |  DAL | Javonte Williams | 19 | 62 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 31.3 |
| 5 |  TEN | Tyjae Spears | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 6 |  JAX | Bhayshul Tuten | 12 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 48 | 2 | 24.7 |
| 7 |  NYG | Cam Skattebo | 17 | 124 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19.1 |
| Average | 15.1 | 61.4 | 0.6 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 16.0 | 0.3 | 16.5 | ||
| Median | 17.0 | 62.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 11.2 | ||
| High | 23 | 124 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 48 | 2 | 31.3 | ||
| Low | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 9.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jacory Croskey-Merritt should do vs the TexansSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Texans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jacory Croskey-Merritt has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Texans opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Texans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jacory Croskey-Merritt usually produces.
Projected is Jacory Croskey-Merritt's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Texans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 16 | 63 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 2 | DAL | 12 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 3 | SEA | 19 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5.3 |
| 4 | IND | 9 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 5 | NYG | 11 | 82 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Croskey-Merritt avg | 13.4 | 47.8 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | |
| Texans RB1 avg | 15.1 | 61.4 | 0.6 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 16.0 | 0.3 | 16.5 | |
| Difference | +1.7 | +13.6 | +0.2 | +3.0 | +2.9 | +8.0 | +0.3 | +7.5 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 13.6 | 48.5 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 9.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Croskey-Merritt averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jacory Croskey-MerrittGood confidence · 9.2 proj ptsOut
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt averages 9.0 PPR points over 5 games (recent-weighted 9.3) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Texans have allowed 16.5 points to RB1s over 7 games (+2% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +2% adjustment.
- Last season's average (8.3) is blended in at 29% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: IR. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 9.2 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJacory Croskey-Merritt vs the Texans
Prediction for Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Texans.
I predict about 9.2 points for Jacory Croskey-Merritt if playing as a RB1. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has averaged 9.0 over 5 games, and the Texans have given up 16.5 to RB1s (+2% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jacory Croskey-Merritt scored: Wk 1 12.6, Wk 2 5.8, Wk 3 5.3, Wk 4 7.0, Wk 5 14.2. Average 9.0; weighted toward recent games it is 9.0.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Texans allowed 16.5 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is +2%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +2% adjustment (x1.02).
4. Result. 9.0 x 1.02 = 9.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jacory Croskey-Merritt is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.3 points, leaning on Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 15.1 carries, 61.4 rushing yards and 3.9 receptions against the Texans across 7 games.
- The Texans allow 16.5 PPR points to RB1s, +2% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Tyjae Spears (2 car, 0 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: car 15.1 vs 17.3; rush yds 61.4 vs 71.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Javonte Williams (31.3 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.5 vs 14.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 9.2 to 31.3 (median 11.2).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 7 games (43%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.