Cam Ward
QB
Tennessee Titans
- Top target Carnell Tate is out, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Colts in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Lamar Jackson | 17 | 25 | 324 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 25.0 |
| 2 |  KC | Patrick Mahomes | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 29.0 |
| 3 |  HOU | C.J. Stroud | 16 | 27 | 167 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 11.7 |
| 4 |  WAS | Athan Kaliakmanis | 15 | 33 | 186 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 11.0 |
| 5 |  PIT | Aaron Rodgers | 22 | 31 | 235 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 22.0 |
| Average | 20.4 | 32.6 | 258.8 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 17.8 | 0.2 | 19.7 | ||
| Median | 17.0 | 31.0 | 235.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | ||
| High | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 29.0 | ||
| Low | 15 | 25 | 167 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 11.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Cam Ward should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Cam Ward has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Cam Ward will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Cam Ward's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Cam Ward usually produces.
Projected is Cam Ward's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 19 | 32 | 140 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 11.7 |
| 2 | PHI | 13 | 20 | 183 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 20.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 23 | 36 | 181 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9.4 |
| 4 | BAL | 20 | 31 | 222 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 15.6 |
| 5 | HOU | 23 | 36 | 170 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5.0 |
| 6 | IND | 11 | 22 | 102 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 6.8 |
| 7 | CLE | 20 | 31 | 181 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 8 | CIN | 26 | 40 | 304 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 41 | 0 | 26.3 |
| Ward avg | 19.4 | 31.0 | 185.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 14.0 | 0.3 | 12.6 | |
| Colts QB1 avg | 20.4 | 32.6 | 258.8 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 17.8 | 0.2 | 19.7 | |
| Difference | +1.0 | +1.6 | +73.4 | +1.1 | -0.4 | -0.3 | +3.8 | -0.0 | +7.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Ward averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreCam Ward vs the Colts
Prediction for Cam Ward
Nobody knows which slot Cam Ward will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 12.5 points for Cam Ward if playing as a QB1. Cam Ward has averaged 12.3 over 5 games, and the Colts have given up 19.7 to QB1s (+17% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Cam Ward scored: Wk 1 11.7, Wk 2 20.0, Wk 3 9.4, Wk 4 15.6, Wk 5 5.0. Average 12.3; weighted toward recent games it is 11.3.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Colts allowed 19.7 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is +17%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +11% adjustment (x1.11).
4. Result. 11.3 x 1.11 = 12.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Cam Ward is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.0 points, leaning on Cam Ward's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 258.8 passing yards, 1.8 passing TDs and 17.8 rushing yards against the Colts across 5 games.
- The Colts allow 19.7 PPR points to QB1s, +17% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Patrick Mahomes (29.0 pts, 382 pass yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 19.7 vs 17.4; pass yds 258.8 vs 228.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 5 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 11.0 to 29.0 (median 22.0).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 150 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 5 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.