Matthew Hibner
TE
Baltimore Ravens
This is how TEs have played against the Jaguars in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Jaguars in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CLE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 |
| 2 |  DEN | Nate Adkins | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 12.8 |
| 3 |  NE | Hunter Henry | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 |
| 4 |  CIN | Mike Gesicki | 5 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 13.0 |
| 5 |  PHI | Dallas Goedert | 9 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 6 |  HOU | Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 14.7 |
| 8 |  IND | Tyler Warren | 10 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 5.8 |
| Average | 4.9 | 3.0 | 23.0 | 0.6 | 8.8 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 3.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 9.8 | ||
| High | 10 | 6 | 40 | 2 | 14.7 | ||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Matthew Hibner should do vs the JaguarsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jaguars, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Matthew Hibner has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jaguars opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Matthew Hibner will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jaguars avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Matthew Hibner's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Matthew Hibner usually produces.
Projected is Matthew Hibner's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jaguars were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.3 |
| 3 | DAL | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 | 10.3 |
| 4 | TEN | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 5.4 |
| 8 | BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Hibner avg | 1.5 | 1.3 | 17.5 | 0.3 | 4.5 | |
| Jaguars TE1 avg | 4.9 | 3.0 | 23.0 | 0.6 | 8.8 | |
| Difference | +3.4 | +1.8 | +5.5 | +0.3 | +4.3 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 15.5 | 0.2 | 3.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Hibner averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Matthew HibnerGood confidence · 2.9 proj pts1/10 start
- Matthew Hibner averages 4.5 PPR points over 4 games (recent-weighted 4.1) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Jaguars have allowed 8.8 points to TE1s over 7 games (-16% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -11% adjustment.
- Game environment -12%: Vegas total 39.5, implied 14.8 points for BAL (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 10: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (68F, 1 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- QB change: Joe Fagnano is now throwing (6.4 yds/att vs 7.9 earlier), x0.88.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Travon Walker (DL) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter DaVon Hamilton (DL) is on IR, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 2.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMatthew Hibner vs the Jaguars
Prediction for Matthew Hibner
Nobody knows which slot Matthew Hibner will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jaguars.
I predict about 3.6 points for Matthew Hibner if playing as a TE1. Matthew Hibner has averaged 4.5 over 4 games, and the Jaguars have given up 8.8 to TE1s (-16% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Matthew Hibner scored: Wk 1 2.3, Wk 3 10.3, Wk 4 5.4, Wk 8 0.0. Average 4.5; weighted toward recent games it is 4.1.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Jaguars allowed 8.8 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is -16%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -11% adjustment (x0.89).
4. Result. 4.1 x 0.89 = 3.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Matthew Hibner is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.7 points, leaning on Matthew Hibner's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 3.0 receptions, 23.0 receiving yards and 0.6 receiving TDs against the Jaguars across 7 games.
- The Jaguars allow 8.8 PPR points to TE1s, -16% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 22 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 6, Foster Moreau (14.7 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.8 vs 7.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Dallas Goedert (6 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: rec 3.0 vs 2.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 7 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.5 to 14.7 (median 9.8).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 7 games (43%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.