Denzel Boston
WR
Cleveland BrownsQ
- Quarterback Deshaun Watson is questionable. Watch the status.
- Teammate Harold Fannin Jr. (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Jets in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Jets in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TEN | Elic Ayomanor | 3 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 8.1 |
| 2 |  GB | Matthew Golden | 6 | 4 | 58 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 3 |  DET | Isaac TeSlaa | 3 | 3 | 66 | 0 | 9.6 |
| 4 |  CHI | Luther Burden III | 6 | 4 | 63 | 0 | 11.4 |
| Average | 4.5 | 3.0 | 49.5 | 0.3 | 9.7 | ||
| Median | 4.5 | 3.5 | 60.5 | 0.0 | 9.7 | ||
| High | 6 | 4 | 66 | 1 | 11.4 | ||
| Low | 3 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 8.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Denzel Boston should do vs the JetsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jets, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Denzel Boston has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jets opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Denzel Boston will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jets avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Denzel Boston's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Denzel Boston usually produces.
Projected is Denzel Boston's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jets were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 4 | 2 | 59 | 1 | 13.9 |
| 2 | TB | 7 | 5 | 95 | 1 | 20.5 |
| 3 | CAR | 4 | 2 | 41 | 0 | 8.1 |
| 4 | PIT | 7 | 4 | 89 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 5 | NYJ | 7 | 3 | 46 | 1 | 13.6 |
| 6 | BAL | 5 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 7 | TEN | 8 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 8 | PIT | 11 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 9.7 |
| Boston avg | 6.6 | 3.3 | 51.1 | 0.4 | 10.9 | |
| Jets WR2 avg | 4.5 | 3.0 | 49.5 | 0.3 | 9.7 | |
| Difference | -2.1 | -0.3 | -1.6 | -0.1 | -1.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Boston averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreDenzel Boston vs the Jets
Prediction for Denzel Boston
Nobody knows which slot Denzel Boston will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jets.
I predict about 14.1 points for Denzel Boston if playing as a WR2. Denzel Boston has averaged 13.8 over 4 games, and the Jets have given up 9.7 to WR2s (+9% vs the league average of 8.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Denzel Boston scored: Wk 1 13.9, Wk 2 20.5, Wk 3 8.1, Wk 4 12.9. Average 13.8; weighted toward recent games it is 13.4.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Jets allowed 9.7 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.9, so that is +9%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +5% adjustment (x1.05).
4. Result. 13.4 x 1.05 = 14.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Denzel Boston is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.2 points, leaning on Denzel Boston's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.0 receptions, 49.5 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Jets across 4 games.
- The Jets allow 9.7 PPR points to WR2s, +9% versus the league average of 8.9 (ranked 11 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Elic Ayomanor (11 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: yds 49.5 vs 62.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 4 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.1 to 11.4 (median 9.7).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 4 games (25%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.