Ted Hurst III
WR
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Teammate Emeka Egbuka (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Bears in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Bears in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CAR | Xavier Legette | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2 |  MIN | Myles Price | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 3 |  PHI | Dontayvion Wicks | 5 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 5.2 |
| 4 |  NYJ | Sterling Shepard | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 5 |  GB | Bo Melton | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 5.0 |
| 6 |  ATL | Zachariah Branch | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 4.9 |
| 7 |  NE | Efton Chism III | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 8 |  SEA | Tory Horton | 6 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 7.6 |
| Average | 2.8 | 1.4 | 12.9 | 0.0 | 3.2 | ||
| Median | 2.0 | 1.5 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 3.8 | ||
| High | 6 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 7.6 | ||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Ted Hurst III should do vs the BearsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bears, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ted Hurst III has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bears opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ted Hurst III will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bears avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ted Hurst III's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ted Hurst III usually produces.
Projected is Ted Hurst III's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bears were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 6.6 |
| 2 | CLE | 7 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 3 | MIN | 3 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 11.0 |
| 4 | GB | 3 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 4.5 |
| 6 | PIT | 6 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 7 | CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 8 | ATL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| III avg | 3.4 | 1.6 | 24.0 | 0.1 | 4.8 | |
| Bears WR3 avg | 2.8 | 1.4 | 12.9 | 0.0 | 3.2 | |
| Difference | -0.7 | -0.2 | -11.1 | -0.1 | -1.7 | |
| Projected as WR3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 19.2 | 0.1 | 2.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what III averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Ted Hurst IIIGood confidence · 3.0 proj pts1/10 start
- Ted Hurst III averages 4.8 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 3.7) and has played as the team's WR3.
- The Bears have allowed 3.2 points to WR3s over 8 games (-28% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -20% adjustment.
- Game environment -1%: Vegas total 47.5, implied 20.8 points for TB (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 6: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (55F, 9 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- QB change: Baker Mayfield is now throwing (6.5 yds/att vs 6.3 earlier), x1.02.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter D'Marco Jackson (LB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Malik Muhammad II (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+0%): Teammate Emeka Egbuka (a top target) is questionable, which can mean extra looks for Hurst.
- Projection: 3.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreTed Hurst III vs the Bears
Prediction for Ted Hurst III
Nobody knows which slot Ted Hurst III will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bears.
I predict about 2.9 points for Ted Hurst III if playing as a WR3. Ted Hurst III has averaged 4.8 over 7 games, and the Bears have given up 3.2 to WR3s (-28% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ted Hurst III scored: Wk 1 6.6, Wk 2 4.7, Wk 3 11.0, Wk 4 4.5, Wk 6 7.0, Wk 7 0.0, Wk 8 0.0. Average 4.8; weighted toward recent games it is 3.7.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Bears allowed 3.2 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is -28%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -20% adjustment (x0.80).
4. Result. 3.7 x 0.80 = 2.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ted Hurst III is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (2.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.9 points, leaning on Ted Hurst III's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 1.4 receptions, 12.9 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Bears across 8 games.
- The Bears allow 3.2 PPR points to WR3s, -28% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 29 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 7.6 (median 3.8).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 8 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.