Crunching this week's bets
Running the numbers on every player, defense, line and forecast. This can take a few seconds.
For information and entertainment only, not betting advice. Chances come from a statistical model built on this season's and last season's box scores; they are estimates, not locks. Must be 21+ where legal. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
For each player and bet type, the hardest common line they reliably clear, next to our chance they clear it again this week. Near-certain lines no book would pay on are left out.
Nothing clears the bar with these filters.
Every player is checked against common lines for each bet (for example 3+, 4+, 5+, 6+ and 7+ catches). For each line we count how often they cleared it this season and last season. Last season counts half, and never more than 8 games' worth, so an old role can't outvote this year.
“Reliably X%+” is a cautious lower estimate of that hit rate: a 3-for-3 start is not treated as 100%, and a long steady record scores higher than a short hot streak.
We keep lines the player reliably clears at least 55% of the time, where our chance this week is between 35% and 85%, and show the hardest one. Both agree ranks by the lower of the history number and this week's chance, so a line only ranks high when the record and the matchup both back it. SP Score ranks by the player's SportsProof Score for that bet type.