Chris Boswell

K Pittsburgh Steelers · Wk 3 vs CIN CIN

Chance of 2+ field goals

57%

Rank

#10

of 32

Why Boswell ranks #10

Chris Boswell has reached 2+ field goals in 1 of 2 games this season.
Boswell has 3 field goals in 2 games (1.50 per game) on 2.5 attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical K at this workload produces (2.09 per game), giving 1.85 per game.
The Bengals have allowed 2.00 field goals per game to Ks over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.63 (+23%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.08 adjustment.
Game environment (field goals x0.96): Vegas total 42.5, implied 19.5 points for PIT (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 3.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (71F, 0 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected field goals this week: 1.91. That makes the chance of 2+ field goals 57%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to Ks divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 1.91, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every K the Bengals faced in each game, not just one player.