Evan McPherson

K Cincinnati Bengals · Wk 3 @ PIT PIT

Chance of 2+ field goals

79%

Rank

of 32

Why McPherson ranks #1

Evan McPherson has reached 2+ field goals in 2 of 2 games this season.
McPherson has 6 field goals in 2 games (3.00 per game) on 3.0 attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical K at this workload produces (2.50 per game), giving 2.70 per game.
The Steelers have allowed 2.00 field goals per game to Ks over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.63 (+23%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.08 adjustment.
Game environment (field goals x1.01): Vegas total 42.5, implied 23.0 points for CIN (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3.5: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (71F, 0 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected field goals this week: 2.93. That makes the chance of 2+ field goals 79%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to Ks divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 2.93, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every K the Steelers faced in each game, not just one player.