Patrick Mahomes

QB Kansas City Chiefs · Wk 3 @ MIA MIA

Chance of 2+ passing TDs

75%

Rank

of 34

Why Mahomes ranks #2

Patrick Mahomes has reached 2+ passing TDs in 2 of 2 games this season.
Mahomes has 5 passing TDs in 2 games (2.50 per game) on 37.0 pass attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical QB at this workload produces (1.84 per game), giving 2.11 per game.
The Dolphins have allowed 2.50 passing TDs per game to QBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.56 (+60%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.20 adjustment.
Game environment (passing TDs x1.07): Vegas total 45.5, implied 28.5 points for KC (league avg 22.5); Favored by 11.5: leaning run-heavy late; Rain likely (0.7 mm, 49% chance): teams run more, fewer big passes.
Expected passing TDs this week: 2.71. That makes the chance of 2+ passing TDs 75%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to QBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 2.71, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every QB the Dolphins faced in each game, not just one player.