‹ Passing touchdowns
Drew Lock
QB Seattle Seahawks · Wk 3 @ 
WAS
Chance of 2+ passing TDs
63%Rank
#8
of 34
Why Lock ranks #8
- Drew Lock has reached 2+ passing TDs in 1 of 2 games this season.
- Lock has 4 passing TDs in 2 games (2.00 per game) on 24.0 pass attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical QB at this workload produces (1.20 per game), giving 1.52 per game.
- The Commanders have allowed 3.50 passing TDs per game to QBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.56 (+124%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.40 adjustment.
- Game environment (passing TDs x0.98): Vegas total 39.5, implied 23.0 points for SEA (league avg 22.5); Favored by 6.5: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (77F, 5 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Expected passing TDs this week: 2.12. That makes the chance of 2+ passing TDs 63%.
- Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.
How the math works
Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.
Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to QBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.
Chance: expected 2.12, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.
It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.
Drew Lock's games
| Wk | Opp | Att | PaYd | PaTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 22 | 187 | 1 |
| 2 | ARI | 26 | 235 | 3 |
| Average | 24.0 | 211.0 | 2.0 | |
What the Commanders allow to QBs
| Wk | Offense | PaTD |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | 3 |
| 2 |  DAL | 4 |
| Commanders avg / game | 3.50 | |
| League avg | 1.56 | |
Totals are for every QB the Commanders faced in each game, not just one player.