Justin Herbert

QB Los Angeles Chargers · Wk 3 @ BUF BUF

Chance of 2+ passing TDs

48%

Rank

#15

of 34

Why Herbert ranks #15

Justin Herbert has reached 2+ passing TDs in 0 of 2 games this season.
Herbert has 2 passing TDs in 2 games (1.00 per game) on 27.0 pass attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical QB at this workload produces (1.35 per game), giving 1.21 per game.
The Bills have allowed 3.00 passing TDs per game to QBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.56 (+92%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.31 adjustment.
Game environment (passing TDs x1.02): Vegas total 50.5, implied 21.8 points for LAC (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 7: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (73F, 3 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected passing TDs this week: 1.63. That makes the chance of 2+ passing TDs 48%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to QBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 1.63, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every QB the Bills faced in each game, not just one player.