Bryce Young

QB Carolina Panthers · Wk 3 @ CLE CLE

Chance of 2+ passing TDs

76%

Rank

of 34

Why Young ranks #1

Bryce Young has reached 2+ passing TDs in 2 of 2 games this season.
Young has 6 passing TDs in 2 games (3.00 per game) on 36.5 pass attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical QB at this workload produces (1.82 per game), giving 2.29 per game.
The Browns have allowed 2.50 passing TDs per game to QBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.56 (+60%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.20 adjustment.
Game environment (passing TDs x0.99): Vegas total 42.5, implied 22.8 points for CAR (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (70F, 4 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected passing TDs this week: 2.73. That makes the chance of 2+ passing TDs 76%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to QBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 2.73, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every QB the Browns faced in each game, not just one player.