Crunching this week's bets
Running the numbers on every player, defense, line and forecast. This can take a few seconds.
For information and entertainment only, not betting advice. Chances come from a statistical model built on this season's and last season's box scores; they are estimates, not locks. Must be 21+ where legal. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Buffalo BillsQ
MIN| Per game | This yr | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Targets | 5.0 | 4.1 |
| Receptions | 3.9 | 3.3 |
| Rec yards | 57.3 | 47.6 |
| Air yards | 50.6 | 38.8 |
| Total TDs | 0.3 | 0.4 |
How good a betting target Kincaid is this week, 0–100, from real stats. 50 is a typical TE.
How much of the offense runs through the player, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward last season.
Last 3 games against the player's usual. Shown for context; it barely predicted the next game in testing.
What the player does with each chance, pulled hard toward the position average because it's noisy.
This week's opponent and game setup, the same adjustments our bet chances use.
How steady the stat the bet settles on is week to week. Steadier is better.
Questionable this week: about 15 points taken off.
How much of the offense runs through the player, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward last season.
Last 3 games against the player's usual. Shown for context; it barely predicted the next game in testing.
What the player does with each chance, pulled hard toward the position average because it's noisy.
This week's opponent and game setup, the same adjustments our bet chances use.
How steady the stat the bet settles on is week to week. Steadier is better.
Not enough games to measure yet.
Questionable this week: about 15 points taken off.
How much of the offense runs through the player, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward last season.
Last 3 games against the player's usual. Shown for context; it barely predicted the next game in testing.
What the player does with each chance, pulled hard toward the position average because it's noisy.
This week's opponent and game setup, the same adjustments our bet chances use.
How steady the stat the bet settles on is week to week. Steadier is better.
Questionable this week: about 15 points taken off.
How much of the offense runs through the player, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward last season.
Last 3 games against the player's usual. Shown for context; it barely predicted the next game in testing.
What the player does with each chance, pulled hard toward the position average because it's noisy.
This week's opponent and game setup, the same adjustments our bet chances use.
How steady the stat the bet settles on is week to week. Steadier is better.
Not enough games to measure yet.
Questionable this week: about 15 points taken off.
Tap a bet type to see the stats behind each part. Parts are in standard deviations from a typical player at the position. A ranking, not a chance to hit or a price edge. How it works ›
Week 9 · Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 PM ET
What the model expects, the middle 80% of outcomes, and our chance at the highlighted line (or the main line, where none is highlighted).
Kincaid's games against the Vikings this season and last.
No games against the Vikings with a real role in the last two seasons.
Share of the offense each week. Role changes usually show up before yardage and catch totals do.
Bars: each game this season. Dotted line: this season's average. Dashed: 2025 average.
Receptions per game. Grey means fewer than 4 games on one side: noise, not signal.
This season. Volatility is for receptions.
Hit records count every game with a real role this season and last season (same position). “Reliably” is a cautious lower estimate that pools both seasons, with last season worth at most 8 games.
This week's chances come from the same model as the rest of the Bets pages: the player's rate per carry or target, blended with last season and a typical player at that workload, adjusted for the defense, the Vegas game setup, weather, the quarterback and injuries.