Travis Kelce

TE Kansas City Chiefs · Wk 3 @ MIA MIA

Chance of 1+ receiving TD

45%

Rank

#11

of 158

Why Kelce ranks #11

Travis Kelce has reached 1+ receiving TD in 1 of 2 games this season.
Kelce has 1 receiving TDs in 2 games (0.50 per game) on 8.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical TE at this workload produces (0.57 per game), giving 0.54 per game.
The Dolphins have allowed 0.50 receiving TDs per game to TEs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.47 (+7%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.02 adjustment.
Game environment (receiving TDs x1.07): Vegas total 45.5, implied 28.5 points for KC (league avg 22.5); Favored by 11.5: leaning run-heavy late; Rain likely (0.7 mm, 49% chance): teams run more, fewer big passes.
Expected receiving TDs this week: 0.59. That makes the chance of 1+ receiving TD 45%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to TEs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.59, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every TE the Dolphins faced in each game, not just one player.