‹ Receiving touchdown
Noah Fant
TE New Orleans Saints · Wk 3 vs 
LV
Chance of 1+ receiving TD
51%Rank
#7
of 158
Why Fant ranks #7
- Noah Fant has reached 1+ receiving TD in 1 of 1 game this season.
- Fant has 1 receiving TDs in 1 game (1.00 per game) on 8.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical TE at this workload produces (0.57 per game), giving 0.68 per game.
- The Raiders have allowed 0.50 receiving TDs per game to TEs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.47 (+7%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.02 adjustment.
- Game environment (receiving TDs x1.03): Vegas total 43.5, implied 23.3 points for NO (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Expected receiving TDs this week: 0.72. That makes the chance of 1+ receiving TD 51%.
- Small sample: only 1 game so far, so treat this as directional.
How the math works
Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.
Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to TEs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.
Chance: expected 0.72, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.
It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.
Noah Fant's games
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 8 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Average | 8.0 | 4.0 | 33.0 | 1.0 | |
What the Raiders allow to TEs
| Wk | Offense | ReTD |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIA | 0 |
| 2 |  LAC | 1 |
| Raiders avg / game | 0.50 | |
| League avg | 0.47 | |
Totals are for every TE the Raiders faced in each game, not just one player.