‹ Receiving touchdown
Nico Collins
WR Houston Texans · Wk 3 @ 
IND
Chance of 1+ receiving TD
56%Rank
#4
of 158
Why Collins ranks #4
- Nico Collins has reached 1+ receiving TD in 1 of 1 game this season.
- Collins has 1 receiving TDs in 1 game (1.00 per game) on 10.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical WR at this workload produces (0.51 per game), giving 0.64 per game.
- The Colts have allowed 1.50 receiving TDs per game to WRs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.90 (+66%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.22 adjustment.
- Game environment (receiving TDs x1.04): Vegas total 43.5, implied 23.0 points for HOU (league avg 22.5); Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Expected receiving TDs this week: 0.82. That makes the chance of 1+ receiving TD 56%.
- Small sample: only 1 game so far, so treat this as directional.
How the math works
Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.
Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to WRs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.
Chance: expected 0.82, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.
It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.
Nico Collins's games
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 10 | 7 | 75 | 1 |
| Average | 10.0 | 7.0 | 75.0 | 1.0 | |
What the Colts allow to WRs
| Wk | Offense | ReTD |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | 1 |
| 2 |  KC | 2 |
| Colts avg / game | 1.50 | |
| League avg | 0.90 | |
Totals are for every WR the Colts faced in each game, not just one player.