Trey McBride

TE Arizona Cardinals · Wk 3 @ SF

Chance of 1+ receiving TD

45%

Rank

of 158

Why McBride ranks #9

Trey McBride has reached 1+ receiving TD in 2 of 2 games this season.
McBride has 2 receiving TDs in 2 games (1.00 per game) on 11.5 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical TE at this workload produces (0.82 per game), giving 0.89 per game.
The 49ers have allowed 0.00 receiving TDs per game to TEs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.47 (-100%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.70 adjustment.
Game environment (receiving TDs x0.97): Vegas total 47.5, implied 19.5 points for ARI (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 8.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Wind about 12 mph: hurts passing and kicking.
Expected receiving TDs this week: 0.61. That makes the chance of 1+ receiving TD 45%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to TEs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.61, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every TE the 49ers faced in each game, not just one player.