Isaiah Likely

TE New York Giants · Wk 2 @ LA

Chance of 1+ receiving TD

54%

Rank

of 158

Why Likely ranks #6

Isaiah Likely has reached 1+ receiving TD in 1 of 1 game this season.
Likely has 2 receiving TDs in 1 game (2.00 per game) on 8.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical TE at this workload produces (0.57 per game), giving 0.93 per game.
The Rams have allowed 0.00 receiving TDs per game to TEs over 1 game, versus a league average of 0.47 (-100%). Only 20% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.80 adjustment.
Game environment (receiving TDs x1.02): Vegas total 47.5, implied 20.5 points for NYG (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 6.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected receiving TDs this week: 0.77. That makes the chance of 1+ receiving TD 54%.
Small sample: only 1 game so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to TEs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.77, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	ReYd	ReTD
1	DAL	8	8	78	2
Average		8.0	8.0	78.0	2.0

Totals are for every TE the Rams faced in each game, not just one player.