Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR Seattle Seahawks · Wk 3 @ WAS WAS

Chance of 5+ receptions

91%

Rank

of 158

Why Smith-Njigba ranks #3

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has reached 5+ receptions in 2 of 2 games this season.
Smith-Njigba has 17 receptions in 2 games (8.50 per game) on 11.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical WR at this workload produces (7.00 per game), giving 7.75 per game.
The Commanders have allowed 13.50 receptions per game to WRs over 2 games, versus a league average of 11.19 (+21%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.08 adjustment.
Game environment (receptions x0.98): Vegas total 39.5, implied 23.0 points for SEA (league avg 22.5); Favored by 6.5: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (77F, 5 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected receptions this week: 8.26. That makes the chance of 5+ receptions 91%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to WRs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 8.26, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 5+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every WR the Commanders faced in each game, not just one player.