Matthew Golden

WR Green Bay Packers · Wk 3 vs ATL ATL

Chance of 5+ receptions

70%

Rank

#19

of 158

Why Golden ranks #19

Matthew Golden has reached 5+ receptions in 1 of 2 games this season.
Golden has 10 receptions in 2 games (5.00 per game) on 9.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical WR at this workload produces (5.73 per game), giving 5.37 per game.
The Falcons have allowed 12.50 receptions per game to WRs over 2 games, versus a league average of 11.19 (+12%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.05 adjustment.
Game environment (receptions x1.03): Vegas total 43.5, implied 25.3 points for GB (league avg 22.5); Favored by 7: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (57F, 5 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected receptions this week: 5.88. That makes the chance of 5+ receptions 70%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to WRs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 5.88, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 5+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every WR the Falcons faced in each game, not just one player.