Patrick Mahomes

QB Kansas City Chiefs · Wk 3 @ MIA MIA

Chance of 1+ rushing TD

43%

Rank

#14

of 89

Why Mahomes ranks #14

Patrick Mahomes has reached 1+ rushing TD in 1 of 2 games this season.
Mahomes has 1 rushing TDs in 2 games (0.50 per game) on 4.5 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical QB at this workload produces (0.25 per game), giving 0.35 per game.
The Dolphins have allowed 0.50 rushing TDs per game to QBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.24 (+107%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.36 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing TDs x1.19): Vegas total 45.5, implied 28.5 points for KC (league avg 22.5); Favored by 11.5: leaning run-heavy late; Rain likely (0.7 mm, 49% chance): teams run more, fewer big passes.
Expected rushing TDs this week: 0.56. That makes the chance of 1+ rushing TD 43%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to QBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.56, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every QB the Dolphins faced in each game, not just one player.