Chase Brown

RB Cincinnati Bengals · Wk 3 @ PIT PIT

Chance of 70+ rushing yds

52%

Rank

of 52

Why Brown ranks #7

Chase Brown has reached 70+ rushing yds in 1 of 2 games this season.
Brown has 136 rushing yards in 2 games (68.00 per game) on 18.0 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (74.12 per game), giving 71.06 per game.
The Steelers have allowed 116.50 rushing yards per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 90.92 (+28%). Only 40% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.11 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing yards x1.03): Vegas total 42.5, implied 23.0 points for CIN (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3.5: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (71F, 0 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected rushing yards this week: 81.36. That makes the chance of 70+ rushing yds 52%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 2 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 2). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+3) of the gap applied and limited to x0.75 to x1.3.

Chance: expected 81.36, spread by about 48.8 yards per game, then the chance of reaching 70+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	Car	RuYd
1	ATL	30	114
2	NE	24	119
Steelers avg / game		27.00	116.50
League avg		22.08	90.92

Totals are for every RB the Steelers faced in each game, not just one player.