Ks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As of Week 9 · through 2 games · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CIN | Evan McPherson | 4 | 4 | 2 | 58 | 3 | 19.0 |
| 2 |  CLE | Andre Szmyt | 3 | 3 | 1 | 50 | 2 | 13.0 |
| Average | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 54.0 | 2.5 | 16.0 | ||
| Median | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 54.0 | 2.5 | 16.0 | ||
| High | 4 | 4 | 2 | 58 | 3 | 19.0 | ||
| Low | 3 | 3 | 1 | 50 | 2 | 13.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed. Kicker scoring: FG 3/4/5 by distance, XP 1, missed FG under 40 yds -1.
Prediction for Cairo Santos
Nobody knows which slot Cairo Santos will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Buccaneers.
I predict about 11.4 points for Cairo Santos if playing as a K1. Cairo Santos has averaged 8.5 over 2 games, and the Buccaneers have given up 16.0 to K1s (+89% vs the league average of 8.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Cairo Santos scored: Wk 1 12.0, Wk 2 5.0. Average 8.5; weighted toward recent games it is 8.7.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Buccaneers allowed 16.0 points to their opponent's K1. The league average for that slot is 8.5, so that is +89%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 8.7 x 1.30 = 11.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Cairo Santos is to reach it as a K1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.8 points, leaning on Cairo Santos's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical K swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- K1s have averaged 3.5 field goals made, 3.5 field goal attempts and 2.5 extra points against the Buccaneers across 2 games.
- The Buccaneers allow 16.0 PPR points to K1s, +89% versus the league average of 8.5 (ranked 1 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 8+ PPR points. Scores range from 13.0 to 19.0 (median 16.0).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Cairo Santos averages 8.5 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 8.1) and has played as the team's K1.
- The Buccaneers have allowed 16.0 points to K1s over 2 games (+89% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +30% adjustment.
- Last season's average (9.4) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 11.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level K scores about 9.5 and a top-tier one about 14.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Cairo Santos's stats vs the Buccaneers
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Buccaneers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Cairo Santos has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Buccaneers opponents to line them up with: the best K they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Cairo Santos will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Buccaneers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Cairo Santos's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Cairo Santos usually produces.
Projected is Cairo Santos's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Buccaneers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 40 | 8 | 12.0 |
| 2 | MIN | 1 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 0 | 5.0 |
| Santos avg | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 45.0 | 4.0 | 8.5 | |
| Buccaneers K1 avg | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 54.0 | 2.5 | 16.0 | |
| Difference | +2.5 | +2.0 | +0.5 | +9.0 | -1.5 | +7.5 | |
| Projected as K1 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 58.5 | 5.2 | 11.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Santos averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.