QBs vs Arizona Cardinals
As of Week 18 · through 2 games · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LAC | Justin Herbert | 17 | 27 | 209 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 13.3 |
| 2 |  SEA | Drew Lock | 19 | 26 | 235 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.4 |
| Average | 18.0 | 26.5 | 222.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | 17.3 | ||
| Median | 18.0 | 26.5 | 222.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | 17.3 | ||
| High | 19 | 27 | 235 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 21.4 | ||
| Low | 17 | 26 | 209 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Brock Purdy
Nobody knows which slot Brock Purdy will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cardinals.
I predict about 22.7 points for Brock Purdy if playing as a QB1. Brock Purdy has averaged 24.8 over 2 games, and the Cardinals have given up 17.3 to QB1s (+3% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Brock Purdy scored: Wk 1 21.1, Wk 2 28.5. Average 24.8; weighted toward recent games it is 22.5.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Cardinals allowed 17.3 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is +3%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +1% adjustment (x1.01).
4. Result. 22.5 x 1.01 = 22.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Brock Purdy is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (22.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 13.6 points, leaning on Brock Purdy's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 23.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- QB1s have averaged 222.0 passing yards, 2.0 passing TDs and 14.5 rushing yards against the Cardinals across 2 games.
- The Cardinals allow 17.3 PPR points to QB1s, +3% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 13.3 to 21.4 (median 17.3).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 200 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Brock Purdy averages 24.8 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 25.2) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Cardinals have allowed 17.3 points to QB1s over 2 games (+3% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +1% adjustment.
- Last season's average (19.7) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +9%: Vegas total 47.5, implied 28.0 points for SF (league avg 22.5); Favored by 8.5: leaning run-heavy late; Wind about 12 mph: hurts passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+5%): Opposing starter Will Johnson (CB) is doubtful, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Max Melton (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 25.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Brock Purdy's stats vs the Cardinals
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cardinals, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Brock Purdy has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cardinals opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Brock Purdy will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cardinals avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Brock Purdy's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Brock Purdy usually produces.
Projected is Brock Purdy's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cardinals were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 25 | 34 | 205 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 21.1 |
| 2 | MIA | 20 | 22 | 287 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 1 | 28.5 |
| Purdy avg | 22.5 | 28.0 | 246.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 29.5 | 0.5 | 24.8 | |
| Cardinals QB1 avg | 18.0 | 26.5 | 222.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | 17.3 | |
| Difference | -4.5 | -1.5 | -24.0 | -0.5 | +0.0 | -1.5 | -15.0 | -0.5 | -7.5 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 22.7 | 28.3 | 248.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 29.8 | 0.5 | 22.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Purdy averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.