QBs vs Green Bay Packers
As of Week 15 · through 2 games · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIN | Carson Wentz | 12 | 19 | 133 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 19.2 |
| 2 |  NYJ | Geno Smith | 27 | 41 | 247 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 15.6 |
| Average | 19.5 | 30.0 | 190.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 17.4 | ||
| Median | 19.5 | 30.0 | 190.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 17.4 | ||
| High | 27 | 41 | 247 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 19.2 | ||
| Low | 12 | 19 | 133 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 15.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Malik Willis
Nobody knows which slot Malik Willis will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Packers.
I predict about 13.7 points for Malik Willis if playing as a QB1. Malik Willis has averaged 14.6 over 2 games, and the Packers have given up 17.4 to QB1s (+3% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Malik Willis scored: Wk 1 16.7, Wk 2 12.5. Average 14.6; weighted toward recent games it is 13.6.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Packers allowed 17.4 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is +3%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +1% adjustment (x1.01).
4. Result. 13.6 x 1.01 = 13.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Malik Willis is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.2 points, leaning on Malik Willis's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- QB1s have averaged 190.0 passing yards, 2.0 passing TDs and 8.0 rushing yards against the Packers across 2 games.
- The Packers allow 17.4 PPR points to QB1s, +3% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 15 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 15.6 to 19.2 (median 17.4).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 120 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Malik Willis averages 14.6 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 14.4) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Packers have allowed 17.4 points to QB1s over 2 games (+3% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +1% adjustment.
- Last season's average (12.8) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 13.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Malik Willis's stats vs the Packers
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Packers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Malik Willis has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Packers opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Malik Willis will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Packers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Malik Willis's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Malik Willis usually produces.
Projected is Malik Willis's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Packers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 15 | 27 | 220 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 16.7 |
| 2 | SF | 14 | 23 | 197 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 12.5 |
| Willis avg | 14.5 | 25.0 | 208.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 22.5 | 0.5 | 14.6 | |
| Packers QB1 avg | 19.5 | 30.0 | 190.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 17.4 | |
| Difference | +5.0 | +5.0 | -18.5 | +1.5 | -0.5 | +1.0 | -14.5 | -0.5 | +2.8 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 14.7 | 25.3 | 211.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 22.8 | 0.5 | 13.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Willis averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.