QBs vs Kansas City Chiefs
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DEN | Bo Nix | 17 | 28 | 131 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5.4 |
| Average | 17.0 | 28.0 | 131.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 5.4 | ||
| Median | 17.0 | 28.0 | 131.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 5.4 | ||
| High | 17 | 28 | 131 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5.4 | ||
| Low | 17 | 28 | 131 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Daniel Jones
Nobody knows which slot Daniel Jones will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chiefs.
I predict about 12.1 points for Daniel Jones if playing as a QB1. Daniel Jones has averaged 9.0 over 1 game, and the Chiefs have given up 5.4 to QB1s (-69% vs the league average of 17.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Daniel Jones scored: Wk 1 9.0. Average 9.0; weighted toward recent games it is 14.6.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Chiefs allowed 5.4 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 17.4, so that is -69%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -17% adjustment (x0.83).
4. Result. 14.6 x 0.83 = 12.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Daniel Jones is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.3 points, leaning on Daniel Jones's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- QB1s have averaged 131.0 passing yards, 1.0 passing TDs and 2.0 rushing yards against the Chiefs across 1 game.
- The Chiefs allow 5.4 PPR points to QB1s, -69% versus the league average of 17.4 (ranked 31 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Daniel Jones averages 10.2 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 10.4) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Chiefs have allowed 8.4 points to QB1s over 2 games (-50% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -20% adjustment.
- Last season's average (17.4) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 11.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Daniel Jones's stats vs the Chiefs
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chiefs, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Daniel Jones has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chiefs opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Daniel Jones will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chiefs avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Daniel Jones's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Daniel Jones usually produces.
Projected is Daniel Jones's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chiefs were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 19 | 31 | 166 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9.0 |
| 2 | KC | 22 | 31 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 11.4 |
| Jones avg | 20.5 | 31.0 | 188.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 10.2 | |
| Chiefs QB1 avg | 17.0 | 28.0 | 131.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 5.4 | |
| Difference | -3.5 | -3.0 | -57.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +1.0 | -5.0 | +0.0 | -4.8 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 17.0 | 25.7 | 155.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 12.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jones averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.