QBs vs Las Vegas Raiders
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIA | Malik Willis | 15 | 27 | 220 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 16.7 |
| Average | 15.0 | 27.0 | 220.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 39.0 | 1.0 | 16.7 | ||
| Median | 15.0 | 27.0 | 220.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 39.0 | 1.0 | 16.7 | ||
| High | 15 | 27 | 220 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 16.7 | ||
| Low | 15 | 27 | 220 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 16.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Justin Herbert
Nobody knows which slot Justin Herbert will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Raiders.
I predict about 16.2 points for Justin Herbert if playing as a QB1. Justin Herbert has averaged 13.3 over 1 game, and the Raiders have given up 16.7 to QB1s (-4% vs the league average of 17.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Justin Herbert scored: Wk 1 13.3. Average 13.3; weighted toward recent games it is 16.4.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Raiders allowed 16.7 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 17.4, so that is -4%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -1% adjustment (x0.99).
4. Result. 16.4 x 0.99 = 16.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Justin Herbert is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.7 points, leaning on Justin Herbert's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- QB1s have averaged 220.0 passing yards, 0.0 passing TDs and 39.0 rushing yards against the Raiders across 1 game.
- The Raiders allow 16.7 PPR points to QB1s, -4% versus the league average of 17.4 (ranked 14 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Justin Herbert averages 10.6 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 10.3) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Raiders have allowed 12.3 points to QB1s over 2 games (-27% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -11% adjustment.
- Last season's average (17.9) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 12.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Justin Herbert's stats vs the Raiders
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Raiders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Justin Herbert has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Raiders opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Justin Herbert will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Raiders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Justin Herbert's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Justin Herbert usually produces.
Projected is Justin Herbert's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Raiders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 17 | 27 | 209 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 13.3 |
| 2 | LV | 15 | 27 | 192 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7.9 |
| Herbert avg | 16.0 | 27.0 | 200.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 15.5 | 0.0 | 10.6 | |
| Raiders QB1 avg | 15.0 | 27.0 | 220.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 39.0 | 1.0 | 16.7 | |
| Difference | -1.0 | +0.0 | +19.5 | -1.0 | -0.5 | +2.0 | +23.5 | +1.0 | +6.1 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 15.8 | 26.7 | 198.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 15.3 | 0.0 | 16.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Herbert averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.