QBs vs New Orleans Saints
As of Week 12 · through 2 games · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Jared Goff | 26 | 39 | 206 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16.4 |
| 2 |  BAL | Lamar Jackson | 21 | 31 | 235 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 14.8 |
| Average | 23.5 | 35.0 | 220.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 15.6 | ||
| Median | 23.5 | 35.0 | 220.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 15.6 | ||
| High | 26 | 39 | 235 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 16.4 | ||
| Low | 21 | 31 | 206 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Joe Burrow
Nobody knows which slot Joe Burrow will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 15.6 points for Joe Burrow if playing as a QB1. Joe Burrow has averaged 15.2 over 2 games, and the Saints have given up 15.6 to QB1s (-8% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Joe Burrow scored: Wk 1 14.2, Wk 2 16.2. Average 15.2; weighted toward recent games it is 16.0.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Saints allowed 15.6 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is -8%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -3% adjustment (x0.97).
4. Result. 16.0 x 0.97 = 15.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Joe Burrow is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.3 points, leaning on Joe Burrow's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- QB1s have averaged 220.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing TDs and 18.0 rushing yards against the Saints across 2 games.
- The Saints allow 15.6 PPR points to QB1s, -8% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 19 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 14.8 to 16.4 (median 15.6).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 200 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Joe Burrow averages 15.2 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 15.3) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Saints have allowed 15.6 points to QB1s over 2 games (-8% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -3% adjustment.
- Last season's average (16.8) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 15.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Joe Burrow's stats vs the Saints
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Joe Burrow has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Joe Burrow will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Joe Burrow's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Joe Burrow usually produces.
Projected is Joe Burrow's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 25 | 35 | 254 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 2 | HOU | 20 | 31 | 207 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16.2 |
| Burrow avg | 22.5 | 33.0 | 230.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 15.2 | |
| Saints QB1 avg | 23.5 | 35.0 | 220.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 15.6 | |
| Difference | +1.0 | +2.0 | -10.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +8.5 | +0.0 | +0.5 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 21.8 | 32.0 | 223.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 15.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Burrow averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.