QBs vs Philadelphia Eagles

As of Week 16 · through 2 games · PPR

Comparing

C.J. Stroud vs the Eagles

Projection 16.6 pts · 2 games played this season

Flex

QB1 avg pts

18.8

PPR per game

Rank

of 32 (1 = most allowed)

vs League

+12%

lg avg 16.9

Wk	Team	Player	Cmp	Att	PaYd	PaTD	INT	Car	RuYd	RuTD	FPts
1	WAS	Jayden Daniels	18	34	164	2	0	5	31	0	17.7
2	TEN	Cam Ward	13	20	183	0	0	4	7	2	20.0
Average			15.5	27.0	173.5	1.0	0.0	4.5	19.0	1.0	18.8
Median			15.5	27.0	173.5	1.0	0.0	4.5	19.0	1.0	18.8
High			18	34	183	2	0	5	31	2	20.0
Low			13	20	164	0	0	4	7	0	17.7

Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.

Prediction & chance to scoreC.J. Stroud vs the Eagles

Prediction for C.J. Stroud

Nobody knows which slot C.J. Stroud will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Eagles.

If C.J. Stroud plays as

16.6

projected PPR points

I predict about 16.6 points for C.J. Stroud if playing as a QB1. C.J. Stroud has averaged 16.7 over 2 games, and the Eagles have given up 18.8 to QB1s (+12% vs the league average of 16.9).

How this projection is built

1. The player. C.J. Stroud scored: Wk 1 16.5, Wk 2 17.0. Average 16.7; weighted toward recent games it is 15.8.

2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Eagles allowed 18.8 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is +12%.

3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +5% adjustment (x1.05).

4. Result. 15.8 x 1.05 = 16.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.

It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.

Chance to score

Type a point total to see how likely C.J. Stroud is to reach it as a QB1.

+ pts

40%

chance of 17+ PPR points

Why this percentage?

The projection (16.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.9 points, leaning on C.J. Stroud's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).

Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.

With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.

InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table

QB1s have averaged 173.5 passing yards, 1.0 passing TDs and 19.0 rushing yards against the Eagles across 2 games.
The Eagles allow 18.8 PPR points to QB1s, +12% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 11 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
2 of 2 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 17.7 to 20.0 (median 18.8).
Every QB1 in the sample cleared 150 passing yards.
QB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.

Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.

What do these columns mean?

Wk: Week of the season
Tgt: Targets (passes thrown to the player)
Rec: Receptions
ReYd: Receiving yards
ReTD: Receiving touchdowns
Car: Carries (rushing attempts)
RuYd: Rushing yards
RuTD: Rushing touchdowns
Cmp / Att: Completions and pass attempts
PaYd / PaTD: Passing yards and touchdowns
INT: Interceptions thrown
FGM / FGA: Field goals made and attempted
FPts: Fantasy points in your scoring format
Sck / TO: Defense: sacks and takeaways
PA: Points allowed by a defense
G: Games in the sample
vs Lg: Percent above or below the league average

Start / Sit · C.J. StroudMedium confidence · 16.6 proj ptsFlex

C.J. Stroud averages 16.7 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 16.8) and has played as the team's QB1.
The Eagles have allowed 18.8 points to QB1s over 2 games (+12% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +5% adjustment.
Last season's average (14.9) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
Projection: 16.6 points.
For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.

C.J. Stroud's stats vs the EaglesSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection

Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Eagles, plus a projection for this game.

What is this table?

Rows at the top are every game C.J. Stroud has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.

Compare against picks which group of Eagles opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot C.J. Stroud will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.

Eagles avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus C.J. Stroud's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than C.J. Stroud usually produces.

Projected is C.J. Stroud's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Eagles were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.

Compare against

Wk	Opp	Cmp	Att	PaYd	PaTD	INT	Car	RuYd	RuTD	FPts
1	BUF	26	38	274	2	0	2	15	0	16.5
2	CIN	30	55	353	0	0	3	29	0	17.0
Stroud avg		28.0	46.5	313.5	1.0	0.0	2.5	22.0	0.0	16.7
Eagles QB1 avg		15.5	27.0	173.5	1.0	0.0	4.5	19.0	1.0	18.8
Difference		-12.5	-19.5	-140.0	+0.0	+0.0	+2.0	-3.0	+1.0	+2.1
Projected as QB1		29.3	48.6	327.9	1.0	0.0	2.6	23.0	0.0	16.6

Difference is what the defense allows minus what Stroud averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.