RBs vs Houston Texans
As of Week 3 · through 2 games · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Texans in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUF | James Cook | 13 | 57 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9.9 |
| 2 |  CIN | Chase Brown | 20 | 80 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11.2 |
| Average | 16.5 | 68.5 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 10.6 | ||
| Median | 16.5 | 68.5 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 10.6 | ||
| High | 20 | 80 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 11.2 | ||
| Low | 13 | 57 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
Prediction for Jonathan Taylor
Nobody knows which slot Jonathan Taylor will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Texans.
I predict about 21.2 points for Jonathan Taylor if playing as a RB1. Jonathan Taylor has averaged 27.1 over 2 games, and the Texans have given up 10.6 to RB1s (-33% vs the league average of 15.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jonathan Taylor scored: Wk 1 25.1, Wk 2 29.2. Average 27.1; weighted toward recent games it is 24.3.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Texans allowed 10.6 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.7, so that is -33%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -13% adjustment (x0.87).
4. Result. 24.3 x 0.87 = 21.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jonathan Taylor is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (21.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 12.7 points, leaning on Jonathan Taylor's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 21.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
Insights
- RB1s have averaged 16.5 carries, 68.5 rushing yards and 3.0 receptions against the Texans across 2 games.
- The Texans allow 10.6 PPR points to RB1s, -33% versus the league average of 15.7 (ranked 27 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 9.9 to 11.2 (median 10.6).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 50 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.
What do these columns mean?
- Wk
- Week of the season
- Tgt
- Targets (passes thrown to the player)
- Rec
- Receptions
- ReYd
- Receiving yards
- ReTD
- Receiving touchdowns
- Car
- Carries (rushing attempts)
- RuYd
- Rushing yards
- RuTD
- Rushing touchdowns
- Cmp / Att
- Completions and pass attempts
- PaYd / PaTD
- Passing yards and touchdowns
- INT
- Interceptions thrown
- FGM / FGA
- Field goals made and attempted
- FPts
- Fantasy points in your scoring format
- Sck / TO
- Defense: sacks and takeaways
- PA
- Points allowed by a defense
- G
- Games in the sample
- vs Lg
- Percent above or below the league average
- Jonathan Taylor averages 27.1 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 27.4) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Texans have allowed 10.6 points to RB1s over 2 games (-33% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -13% adjustment.
- Last season's average (21.3) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -3%: Vegas total 43.5, implied 20.5 points for IND (league avg 22.5); Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Henry To'oTo'o (LB) is on IR, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Henry To'oTo'o (LB) is on IR, which helps the running game.
- Projection: 20.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Jonathan Taylor's stats vs the Texans
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Texans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jonathan Taylor has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Texans opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jonathan Taylor will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Texans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jonathan Taylor's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jonathan Taylor usually produces.
Projected is Jonathan Taylor's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Texans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 19 | 98 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 25.1 |
| 2 | KC | 24 | 92 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 29.2 |
| Taylor avg | 21.5 | 95.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 31.5 | 0.0 | 27.1 | |
| Texans RB1 avg | 16.5 | 68.5 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 10.6 | |
| Difference | -5.0 | -26.5 | -2.0 | +0.5 | -0.5 | -24.5 | +0.0 | -16.6 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 18.7 | 82.6 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 27.4 | 0.0 | 21.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Taylor averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.